Related papers: Causal Inference on Process Graphs, Part I: The St…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Dynamic structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful framework for reasoning in dynamic systems about direct effects which measure how a change in one variable affects another variable while holding all other variables constant. The…

Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…

Causal models capture cause-effect relations both qualitatively - via the graphical causal structure - and quantitatively - via the model parameters. They offer a powerful framework for analyzing and constructing processes. Here, we…

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the…

The paper concerns the problem of predicting the effect of actions or interventions on a system from a combination of (i) statistical data on a set of observed variables, and (ii) qualitative causal knowledge encoded in the form of a…

Most neural models of causality assume static causal graphs, failing to capture the dynamic and sparse nature of physical interactions where causal relationships emerge and dissolve over time. We introduce the Causal Process Framework and…

Structural equation models (SEMs) and vector autoregressive models (VARMs) are two broad families of approaches that have been shown useful in effective brain connectivity studies. While VARMs postulate that a given region of interest in…

A causal vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is introduced for weakly stationary multivariate processes, combining a recursive directed graphical model for the contemporaneous components and a vector autoregressive model longitudinally.…

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Dynamical systems are widely used in science and engineering to model systems consisting of several interacting components. Often, they can be given a causal interpretation in the sense that they not only model the evolution of the states…

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…

While seasonality inherent to raw macroeconomic data is commonly removed by seasonal adjustment techniques before it is used for structural inference, this may distort valuable information in the data. As an alternative method to commonly…

To represent the causal relationships between variables, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is widely utilized in many areas, such as social sciences, epidemics, and genetics. Many causal structure learning approaches are developed to learn the…

A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series $X$, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix $\hat{B}$ causally. However,…

Can the direction of time and the causal structure of space-time be inferred from operational principles? Causal models and tensor networks offer complementary perspectives: the former encodes cause-effect relations via directed graphs,…

Three distinct phenomena complicate statistical causal analysis: latent common causes, causal cycles, and latent selection. Foundational works on Structural Causal Models (SCMs), e.g., Bongers et al. (2021, Ann. Stat., 49(5): 2885-2915),…