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In this paper, we study the Bayesian risk-averse formulation in reinforcement learning (RL). To address the epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of data, we adopt the Bayesian Risk Markov Decision Process (BRMDP) to account for the parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Yuhao Wang , Enlu Zhou

In online reinforcement learning, data scarcity creates epistemic uncertainty that makes robustness important early in learning, whereas sufficient exploration is needed to learn the true-environment optimal policy. We study this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Meichen Song , Yuhao Wang , Enlu Zhou

Risk-averse total-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) offer a promising framework for modeling and solving undiscounted infinite-horizon objectives. Existing model-based algorithms for risk measures like the entropic risk measure (ERM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Xihong Su , Jia Lin Hau , Gersi Doko , Kishan Panaganti , Marek Petrik

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) intend to ensure robustness with respect to changing or adversarial system behavior. In this framework, transitions are modeled as arbitrary elements of a known and properly structured uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-25 Esther Derman , Daniel Mankowitz , Timothy Mann , Shie Mannor

In the reinforcement learning literature, there are many algorithms developed for either Contextual Bandit (CB) or Markov Decision Processes (MDP) environments. However, when deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in the real world,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Kelly W. Zhang , Omer Gottesman , Finale Doshi-Velez

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) aims to maximize the expected total reward, while the risk of uncertain outcomes needs to be controlled to ensure reliable performance in a risk-averse setting. In this paper, we consider the problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Xian Yu , Siqian Shen

We propose a novel framework for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RSRL) that incorporates robustness against transition uncertainty. We define two distinct yet coupled risk measures: an inner risk measure addressing state and cost…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-01 Shanyu Han , Yangbo He , Yang Liu

Building on the framework introduced by Xu and Raginksy [1] for supervised learning problems, we study the best achievable performance for model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning problems. With this purpose, we define minimum Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

Informed and robust decision making in the face of uncertainty is critical for robots that perform physical tasks alongside people. We formulate this as Bayesian Reinforcement Learning over latent Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Gilwoo Lee , Brian Hou , Sanjiban Choudhury , Siddhartha S. Srinivasa

A risk-averse preview-based $Q$-learning planner is presented for navigation of autonomous vehicles. To this end, the multi-lane road ahead of a vehicle is represented by a finite-state non-stationary Markov decision process (MDP). A risk…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-19 Majid Mazouchi , Subramanya Nageshrao , Hamidreza Modares

In this paper, we consider a finite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) for which the objective at each stage is to minimize a quantile-based risk measure (QBRM) of the sequence of future costs; we call the overall objective a dynamic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-10 Daniel R. Jiang , Warren B. Powell

The field of quickest change detection (QCD) focuses on the design and analysis of online algorithms that estimate the time at which a significant event occurs. In this paper, design and analysis are cast in a Bayesian framework, where QCD…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Austin Cooper , Sean Meyn

In this paper, we study the problem of efficient online reinforcement learning in the infinite horizon setting when there is an offline dataset to start with. We assume that the offline dataset is generated by an expert but with unknown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Dengwang Tang , Rahul Jain , Botao Hao , Zheng Wen

Sequential decisions in volatile, high-stakes settings require more than maximizing expected return; they require principled uncertainty management. This paper presents the Uncertainty-Aware Markov Decision Process (UAMDP), a unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Michal Koren , Or Peretz , Tai Dinh , Philip S. Yu

We introduce a Bayesian (deep) model-based reinforcement learning method (RoMBRL) that can capture model uncertainty to achieve sample-efficient policy optimisation. We propose to formulate the model-based policy optimisation problem as a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-01-06 Tai Hoang , Ngo Anh Vien

Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful framework for constrained control, but its performance and safety can be severely degraded when the prediction model is learned online and thus remains uncertain. In this work, we develop a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Yingke Li , Yifan Lin , Enlu Zhou , Fumin Zhang

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated impressive performance in various challenging problems such as robotics, board games, and classical arcade games. However, its real-world applications can be hindered by the absence of robustness and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Siemen Herremans , Ali Anwar , Siegfried Mercelis

Reinforcement learning (RL) provides a principled framework for decision-making in partially observable environments, which can be modeled as Markov decision processes and compactly represented through dynamic decision Bayesian networks.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-25 Gilberto Cunha , Alexandra Ramôa , André Sequeira , Michael de Oliveira , Luís Barbosa
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