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This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn…

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) have recently demonstrated effectiveness in tabular data imputation. However, due to the inherent heterogeneity of tabular data, the uniform random masking strategy commonly used in MAEs can disrupt the…

Distribution-free prediction sets play a pivotal role in uncertainty quantification for complex statistical models. Their validity hinges on reliable calibration data, which may not be readily available as real-world environments often…

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

In data streams, the data distribution of arriving observations at different time points may change - a phenomenon called concept drift. While detecting concept drift is a relatively mature area of study, solutions to the uncertainty…

Obtaining rigorous statistical guarantees for generalization under distribution shift remains an open and active research area. We study a setting we call combinatorial distribution shift, where (a) under the test- and…

Binomial data with unknown sizes often appear in biological and medical sciences and are usually overdispersed. All previous methods used parametric models and only considered overdispersion due to the variation of sizes. The proposed…

This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the shift parameter in a semiparametric regression model when the distribution of the observation times is unknown. Hence, we propose to use a stochastic algorithm which takes into account the…

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts…

Deployed machine learning (ML) models often encounter new user data that differs from their training data. Therefore, estimating how well a given model might perform on the new data is an important step toward reliable ML applications. This…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Recent interest in the external validity of prediction models (i.e., the problem of different train and test distributions, known as dataset shift) has produced many methods for finding predictive distributions that are invariant to dataset…

Statistical models are central to machine learning with broad applicability across a range of downstream tasks. The models are controlled by free parameters that are typically estimated from data by maximum-likelihood estimation or…

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying…

Object recognition and instance segmentation are fundamental skills in any robotic or autonomous system. Existing state-of-the-art methods are often unable to capture meaningful uncertainty in challenging or ambiguous scenes, and as such…