Related papers: Dynamic Term Structure Models with Nonlinearities …

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has attracted extensive attention for modeling complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, the existing GPSSM employs separate Gaussian processes (GPs) for each latent state dimension,…

We consider the problem of constructing nonparametric undirected graphical models for high-dimensional functional data. Most existing statistical methods in this context assume either a Gaussian distribution on the vertices or linear…

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) provide a way to blend parametric and non-parametric (function approximation) techniques together, making them flexible tools suitable for many modeling problems. For instance, GAMs can be used to…

In this work, we propose an approach to generalize denoising diffusion probabilistic models for stock market predictions and portfolio management. Present works have demonstrated the efficacy of modeling interstock relations for market…

Mathematical models of biological populations commonly use discrete structure classes to capture trait variation among individuals (e.g. age, size, phenotype, intracellular state). Upscaling these discrete models into continuum descriptions…

Dynamical systems theory has long provided a foundation for understanding evolving phenomena across scientific domains. Yet, the application of this theory to complex real-world systems remains challenging due to issues in mathematical…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

We combine high-dimensional factor models with fractional integration methods and derive models where nonstationary, potentially cointegrated data of different persistence is modelled as a function of common fractionally integrated factors.…

We propose a novel group of Gaussian Process based algorithms for fast approximate optimal stopping of time series with specific applications to financial markets. We show that structural properties commonly exhibited by financial time…

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Understanding and predicting environmental phenomena often requires the construction of spatio-temporal statistical models, which are typically Gaussian processes. A common assumption made on Gaussian processes is that of covariance…

Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…

Stock networks, constructed from stock price time series, are a well-established tool for the characterization of complex behavior in stock markets. Following Mantegna's seminal paper, the linear Pearson's correlation coefficient between…

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Regression is an essential and fundamental methodology in statistical analysis. The majority of the literature focuses on linear and nonlinear regression in the context of the Euclidean space. However, regression models in non-Euclidean…

In this document, we present key findings in structured matrix approximation theory, with applications to the regressive representation of dynamic financial processes. Initially, we explore a comprehensive approach involving generic…