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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become critical for evaluating the reliability of artificial intelligence systems, especially in medical image segmentation. This study addresses the interpretability of instance-wise uncertainty values…

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Timothy John Sullivan , Mike McKerns , Michael Ortiz

Quality-Diversity optimisation (QD) has proven to yield promising results across a broad set of applications. However, QD approaches struggle in the presence of uncertainty in the environment, as it impacts their ability to quantify the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Manon Flageat , Antoine Cully

Uncertainty quantification for Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) is critical for comparing flow fields with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results, and model design and validation. However, PIV features a complex measurement chain with…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-07-07 Lalit K. Rajendran , Sayantan Bhattacharya , Sally P. M. Bane , Pavlos P. Vlachos

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Determining the measurement uncertainty region is a difficult problem for generic sets of observables. For this reason the literature on exact measurement uncertainty regions is focused on symmetric sets of observables, where the symmetries…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-09-12 Oliver Reardon-Smith

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

As large language models are increasingly deployed for clinical text, ensuring they can reliably signal their own uncertainty becomes critical. Most existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are designed for open-domain generation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bushi Xiao , Sarvesh Soni , Daisy Zhe Wang

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Vardhan Dongre , Gurpreet Singh Hora

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper introduces CUQIpy, a versatile open-source Python package for computational uncertainty quantification (UQ) in inverse problems, presented as Part I of a two-part series. CUQIpy employs a Bayesian framework, integrating prior…

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Ptychography, as an essential tool for high-resolution and nondestructive material characterization, presents a challenging large-scale nonlinear and non-convex inverse problem; however, its intrinsic photon statistics create clear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Agnimitra Dasgupta , Zichao Wendy Di