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We construct exact confidence intervals for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments with binary outcomes using sequences of randomization tests. Our approach does not rely on large-sample approximations and is valid for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Peng Zhang

Based on the physical randomization of completely randomized experiments, Rigdon and Hudgens (2015) propose two approaches to obtaining exact confidence intervals for the average causal effect on a binary outcome. They construct the first…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-25 Xinran Li , Peng Ding

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark

I introduce a simple permutation procedure to test conventional (non-sharp) hypotheses about the effect of a binary treatment in the presence of a finite number of large, heterogeneous clusters when the treatment effect is identified by…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-08 Andreas Hagemann

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa

In observational causal inference, in order to emulate a randomized experiment, weights are used to render treatments independent of observed covariates. This property is known as balance; in its absence, estimated causal effects may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-16 David Arbour , Drew Dimmery , Arjun Sondhi

In large scale genetic association studies, a primary aim is to test for association between genetic variants and a disease outcome. The variants of interest are often rare, and appear with low frequency among subjects. In this situation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-20 Arjun Sondhi , Kenneth Martin Rice

The permutation test is known as the exact test procedure in statistics. However, often it is not exact in practice and only an approximate method since only a small fraction of every possible permutation is generated. Even for a small…

Linear combinations of multinomial probabilities, such as those resulting from contingency tables, are of use when evaluating classification system performance. While large sample inference methods for these combinations exist, small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Katherine A. Batterton , Christine M. Schubert , Richard L. Warr

In data mining, when binary prediction rules are used to predict a binary outcome, many performance measures are used in a vast array of literature for the purposes of evaluation and comparison. Some examples include classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zheng Yuan , Wenxin Jiang

Regulatory authorities guide the use of permutation tests or randomization tests so as not to increase the type-I error rate when applying covariate-adaptive randomization in randomized clinical trials. For non-inferiority and equivalence…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-27 Masahiro Kojima , Hirotaka Mano , Kana Yamada , Keisuke Hanada , Yuji Tanaka , Junji Moriya

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

We study nonasymptotic (finite-sample) confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments. In the existing literature, the effective sample sizes of nonasymptotic confidence intervals tend to be looser than the…

The average treatment effect, which is the difference in expectation of the counterfactuals, is probably the most popular target effect in causal inference with binary treatments. However, treatments may have effects beyond the mean, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-02 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas , Edward H. Kennedy

Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive \textit{p}-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomised trials with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Samuel I Watson , Joshua Akinyemi , Karla Hemming

Factorial survival designs with right-censored observations are commonly inferred by Cox regression and explained by means of hazard ratios. However, in case of non-proportional hazards, their interpretation can become cumbersome;…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-26 Marc Ditzhaus , Dennis Dobler , Markus Pauly

When permutation methods are used in practice, often a limited number of random permutations are used to decrease the computational burden. However, most theoretical literature assumes that the whole permutation group is used, and methods…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-20 Jesse Hemerik , Jelle Goeman

Significance testing -- especially the paired-permutation test -- has played a vital role in developing NLP systems to provide confidence that the difference in performance between two systems (i.e., the test statistic) is not due to luck.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Ran Zmigrod , Tim Vieira , Ryan Cotterell
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