Related papers: Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…
In this study, a longitudinal regression model for covariance matrix outcomes is introduced. The proposal considers a multilevel generalized linear model for regressing covariance matrices on (time-varying) predictors. This model…
Many economic environments involve units linked by a network. I develop an econometric framework that derives the dynamics of cross-sectional variables from the lagged innovation transmission along bilateral links and that can accommodate…
In this paper, a new estimation method is introduced for the quantile spectrum, which uses a parametric form of the autoregressive (AR) spectrum coupled with nonparametric smoothing. The method begins with quantile periodograms which are…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
We propose a novel frailty model with change points applying random effects to a Cox proportional hazard model to adjust the heterogeneity between clusters. Because the frailty model includes random effects, the parameters are estimated…
In the post-pandemic world, manufacturing enterprises face increasing uncertainties, especially with vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Although supply chain management has been extensively studied, the critical influence of…
Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…
We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing ad hoc approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a…
This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
We study factor models augmented by observed covariates that have explanatory powers on the unknown factors. In financial factor models, the unknown factors can be reasonably well explained by a few observable proxies, such as the…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
Growth charts are often more informative when they are customized per subject, taking into account prior measurements and possibly other covariates of the subject. We study a global semiparametric quantile regression model that has the…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…