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The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

In Bayesian inference, making deductions about a parameter of interest requires one to sample from or compute an integral against a posterior distribution. A popular method to make these computations cheaper in high-dimensional settings is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-10 Anya Katsevich

In a Bayesian inverse problem setting, the solution consists of a posterior measure obtained by combining prior belief, information about the forward operator, and noisy observational data. This measure is most often given in terms of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-12 Philipp Wacker

This note attempts to revisit the classical results on Laplace approximation in a modern non-asymptotic and dimension free form. Such an extension is motivated by applications to high dimensional statistical and optimization problems. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-13 Vladimir Spokoiny

Laplace approximations are a standard tool for computationally efficient inference in latent Gaussian models, but they fail for quantile regression with the asymmetric Laplace likelihood because the observed Hessian vanishes almost…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Andrea Nava , Fabio Sigrist

The Laplace approximation (LA) to posteriors is a ubiquitous tool to simplify Bayesian computation, particularly in the high-dimensional settings arising in Bayesian inverse problems. Precisely quantifying the LA accuracy is a challenging…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Anya Katsevich , Vladimir Spokoiny

Laplace approximations are popular techniques for endowing deep networks with epistemic uncertainty estimates as they can be applied without altering the predictions of the trained network, and they scale to large models and datasets. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Tristan Cinquin , Marvin Pförtner , Vincent Fortuin , Philipp Hennig , Robert Bamler

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jinlin Lai , Charles C. Margossian , Daniel R. Sheldon

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Marius Hobbhahn , Philipp Hennig

Laplace approximations are commonly used to approximate high-dimensional integrals in statistical applications, but the quality of such approximations as the dimension of the integral grows is not well understood. In this paper, we prove a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Helen Ogden

Laplace's method approximates a target density with a Gaussian distribution at its mode. It is computationally efficient and asymptotically exact for Bayesian inference due to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, but for complex targets and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Hanlin Yu , Marcelo Hartmann , Bernardo Williams , Mark Girolami , Arto Klami

Statistical applications often involve the calculation of intractable multidimensional integrals. The Laplace formula is widely used to approximate such integrals. However, in high-dimensional or small sample size problems, the shape of the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Erlis Ruli , Nicola Sartori , Laura Ventura

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Nikolaos Gianniotis

We consider Bayesian variable selection in sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number of covariates $p$ may be large relative to the samples size $n$, but at most a moderate number $q$ of covariates are active. Specifically, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Rina Foygel Barber , Mathias Drton , Kean Ming Tan

We focus on Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian likelihood, linear forward model, and priors that can be formulated as a Gaussian mixture. Such a mixture is expressed as an integral of Gaussian density functions weighted by a mixing…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-30 Rafael Flock , Yiqiu Dong , Felipe Uribe , Olivier Zahm

Gaussian approximations are routinely employed in Bayesian statistics to ease inference when the target posterior is intractable. Although these approximations are asymptotically justified by Bernstein-von Mises type results, in practice…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Daniele Durante , Francesco Pozza , Botond Szabo

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems provides a rigorous framework for the incorporation and quantification of uncertainties in measurements, parameters and models. We are interested in designing numerical methods which are robust…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-29 Claudia Schillings , Björn Sprungk , Philipp Wacker

The marginal likelihood is a well established model selection criterion in Bayesian statistics. It also allows to efficiently calculate the marginal posterior model probabilities that can be used for Bayesian model averaging of quantities…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-07 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Yinsong Chen , Samson S. Yu , Zhong Li , Chee Peng Lim

Bayesian neural networks often approximate the weight-posterior with a Gaussian distribution. However, practical posteriors are often, even locally, highly non-Gaussian, and empirical performance deteriorates. We propose a simple parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-13 Federico Bergamin , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Søren Hauberg , Georgios Arvanitidis
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