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We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-07 Lin Fan , Junting Duan , Peter W. Glynn , Markus Pelger

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

Handling missing data in time series is a complex problem due to the presence of temporal dependence. General-purpose imputation methods, while widely used, often distort key statistical properties of the data, such as variance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Guilherme Pumi , Taiane Schaedler Prass , Douglas Krauthein Verdum

Estimation of the mean and covariance parameters for functional data is a critical task, with local linear smoothing being a popular choice. In recent years, many scientific domains are producing multivariate functional data for which $p$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Alexander Petersen

The characterization of non-stationary signals requires joint time and frequency information. However, time (t) and frequency (omega) being non-commuting variables there cannot be a joint probability density in the (t,omega) plane and the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 V. I. Man'ko , R. Vilela Mendes

This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian method for exploratory data analysis and feature construction in continuous time series. Our method focuses on understanding shared features in a set of time series that exhibit significant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-08-13 Suchi Saria , Daphne Koller , Anna Penn

While a substantial literature on structural break change point analysis exists for univariate time series, research on large panel data models has not been as extensive. In this paper, a novel method for estimating panel models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-24 Oualid Bada , Alois Kneip , Dominik Liebl , Tim Mensinger , James Gualtieri , Robin C. Sickles

Multivariate time series analysis is extensively used in neurophysiology with the aim of studying the relationship between simultaneously recorded signals. Recently, advances on information theory and nonlinear dynamical systems theory have…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Ernesto Pereda , Rodrigo Quian Quiroga , Joydeep Bhattacharya

In this paper, we introduce two robust, nonparametric methods for multiple change-point detection in the variability of a multivariate sequence of observations. We demonstrate that changes in ranks generated from data depth functions can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Kelly Ramsay , Shoja'eddin Chenouri

We develop algorithms for detecting multiple changepoints in functional data when the number of changepoints is unknown (unsupervised case), when it is specified apriori (supervised case), and when certain bounds are available…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-19 Sourav Chakrabarty , Anirvan Chakraborty , Shyamal K. De

We consider the analysis of sets of categorical sequences consisting of piecewise homogeneous Markov segments. The sequences are assumed to be governed by a common underlying process with segments occurring in the same order for each…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-08 Petter Arnesen , Tracy Holsclaw , Padhraic Smyth

Spatiotemporal dynamics models are fundamental for various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based spatiotemporal modeling approaches fall short when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Valerii Iakovlev , Harri Lähdesmäki

Time series measured from real-world systems are generally noisy, complex and display statistical properties that evolve continuously over time. Here, we present a method that combines wavelet analysis and non-stationary surrogates to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-04-12 Mario Chavez , Bernard Cazelles

We formulate nonparametric and semiparametric hypothesis testing of multivariate stationary linear time series in a unified fashion and propose new test statistics based on estimators of the spectral density matrix. The limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-03 Yoshihiro Yajima , Yasumasa Matsuda

We study the problem of detecting and localizing multiple changes in the mean parameter of a Banach space-valued time series. The goal is to construct a collection of narrow confidence intervals, each containing at least one (or exactly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Tim Kutta , Holger Dette , Shixuan Wang

Parameter estimation in linear errors-in-variables models typically requires that the measurement error distribution be known (or estimable from replicate data). A generalized method of moments approach can be used to estimate model…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-04 Linh Nghiem , Michael Byrd , Cornelis Potgieter

This paper introduces coordinate-independent methods for analysing multiscale dynamical systems using numerical techniques based on the transfer operator and its adjoint. In particular, we present a method for testing whether an arbitrary…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-09-30 Gary Froyland , Georg A. Gottwald , Andy Hammerlindl

We consider the detection and localization of change points in the distribution of an offline sequence of observations. Based on a nonparametric framework that uses a similarity graph among observations, we propose new test statistics when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Lizhen Nie , Dan L. Nicolae

Pattern-mixture models provide a transparent approach for handling missing data, where the full-data distribution is factorized in a way that explicitly shows the parts that can be estimated from observed data alone, and the parts that…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-26 Yen-Chi Chen , Mauricio Sadinle

Multivariate time series data that capture the temporal evolution of interconnected systems are ubiquitous in diverse areas. Understanding the complex relationships and potential dependencies among co-observed variables is crucial for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Zhaolu Liu , Robert L. Peach , Felix Laumann , Sara Vallejo Mengod , Mauricio Barahona
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