Related papers: Hail Mary Pass: Contests with Stochastic Progress
Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical…
Vickrey's classic single-bottleneck departure time choice equilibrium model exhibits instability under many plausible day-to-day learning dynamics. Such instability is not observed in reality -- does this difference stem from the day-to-day…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
We consider a Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. We assume…
Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…
The process algebra HYPE was recently proposed as a fine-grained modelling approach for capturing the behaviour of hybrid systems. In the original proposal, each flow or influence affecting a variable is modelled separately and the overall…
In the last decade, stochastic models have shown to be very useful for quantitative modelling of social processes. Here, a configurational master equation for the description of behavioral changes by pair interactions of individuals is…
We study the simple random walk on stochastic hyperbolic half planar triangulations constructed in Angel and Ray [3]. We show that almost surely the walker escapes the boundary of the map in positive speed and that the return probability to…
We propose a new dynamics for equilibrium selection of finite player discrete strategy games. The dynamics is motivated by optimal transportation, and models individual players' myopicity, greedy and uncertainty when making decisions. The…
We introduce and study incentive equilibria for multi-player meanpayoff games. Incentive equilibria generalise well-studied solution concepts such as Nash equilibria and leader equilibria (also known as Stackelberg equilibria). Recall that…
In this paper, we analyse a sub-class of two-dimensional homogeneous nearest neighbour (simple) random walk restricted on the lattice using the matrix geometric approach. In particular, we first present an alternative approach for the…
Stability and safety are crucial in safety-critical control of dynamical systems. The reach-avoid-stay objectives for deterministic dynamical systems can be effectively handled by formal methods as well as Lyapunov methods with soundness…
Sailboat path-planning is a natural hybrid control problem (due to continuous steering and occasional "tack-switching" maneuvers), with the actual path-to-target greatly affected by stochastically evolving wind conditions. Previous studies…
This paper aims to develop the stability theory for singular stochastic Markov jump systems with state-dependent noise, including both continuous- and discrete-time cases. The sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a…
We consider weighted graphs satisfying sub-Gaussian estimate for the natural random walk. On such graphs, we study symmetric Markov chains with heavy tailed jumps. We establish a threshold behavior of such Markov chains when the index…
In this paper, we consider a sequential stochastic Stackelberg game with two players, a leader and a follower. The follower has access to the state of the system while the leader does not. Assuming that the players act in their respective…
In this paper we analyse a dynamic model of investment under uncertainty in a duopoly, in which each firm has an option to switch from the present market to a new market. We construct a subgame perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies and…
Time-consistency is an essential requirement in risk sensitive optimal control problems to make rational decisions. An optimization problem is time consistent if its solution policy does not depend on the time sequence of solving the…
This paper considers the discounted criterion of nonzero-sum decentralized stochastic games with prospect players. The state and action spaces are finite. The state transition probability is nonstationary. Each player independently controls…
Decision-making individuals are typically either an imitator, who mimics the action of the most successful individual(s), a conformist (or coordinating individual), who chooses an action if enough others have done so, or a nonconformist (or…