English
Related papers

Related papers: Hawkes Process Based on Controlled Differential Eq…

200 papers

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yan Wang , Zhixuan Chu , Tao Zhou , Caigao Jiang , Hongyan Hao , Minjie Zhu , Xindong Cai , Qing Cui , Longfei Li , James Y Zhang , Siqiao Xue , Jun Zhou

Monitoring news content automatically is an important problem. The news content, unlike traditional text, has a temporal component. However, few works have explored the combination of natural language processing and dynamic system models.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Honggen Zhang , June Zhang

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

Training a model to detect patterns of interrelated events that form situations of interest can be a complex problem: such situations tend to be uncommon, and only sparse data is available. We propose a hybrid neuro-symbolic architecture…

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Kyungsub Lee

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

Deep learning inspired by differential equations is a recent research trend and has marked the state of the art performance for many machine learning tasks. Among them, time-series modeling with neural controlled differential equations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-22 Sheo Yon Jhin , Jaehoon Lee , Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Jinsung Jeon , Jihyeon Hyeong , Jayoung Kim , Noseong Park

We investigate a singular-optimal stopping stochastic control problem driven by self-exciting dynamics governed by a Hawkes process. In the continuous-time setting, we show that the optimization problem reduces to solving a variational…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Isabel Agostino , Thibaut Mastrolia

In this paper, we propose an event-driven Limit Order Book (LOB) model that captures twelve of the most observed LOB events in exchange-based financial markets. To model these events, we propose using the state-of-the-art Neural Hawkes…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-19 Luca Lalor , Anatoliy Swishchuk

Continuously-worn wearable sensors enable researchers to collect copious amounts of rich bio-behavioral time series recordings of real-life activities of daily living, offering unprecedented opportunities to infer novel human behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Tiantian Feng , Brandon M Booth , Shrikanth Narayanan

We consider online monitoring of the network event data to detect local changes in a cluster when the affected data stream distribution shifts from one point process to another with different parameters. Specifically, we are interested in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Rui Zhang , Haoyun Wang , Yao Xie

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Forecasting the degradation of coated materials has long been a topic of critical interest in engineering, as it has enormous implications for both system maintenance and sustainable material use. Material degradation is affected by many…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-15 Matthew Repasky , Henry Yuchi , Fritz Friedersdorf , Yao Xie

Hawkes stochastic point process models have emerged as valuable statistical tools for analyzing viral contagion. The spatiotemporal Hawkes process characterizes the speeds at which viruses spread within human populations. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-17 Seyoon Ko , Marc A. Suchard , Andrew J. Holbrook

Hawkes process are very popular mathematical tools for modelling phenomena exhibiting a \textit{self-exciting} or \textit{self-correcting} behaviour. Typical examples are earthquakes occurrence, wild-fires, drought, capture-recapture, crime…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-23 Francesco Serafini , Finn Lindgren , Mark Naylor

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Prompt and accurate detection of system anomalies is essential to ensure the reliability of software systems. Unlike manual efforts that exploit all available run-time information, existing approaches usually leverage only a single type of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Baitong Li , Tianyi Yang , Zhuangbin Chen , Yuxin Su , Yongqiang Yang , Michael R. Lyu

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures affecting more than 70 million people worldwide. Often, an individual with epilepsy is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure, a…