Related papers: Hawkes Process Based on Controlled Differential Eq…
Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…
Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…
The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…
Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…
The vector field of a controlled differential equation (CDE) describes the relationship between a control path and the evolution of a solution path. Neural CDEs (NCDEs) treat time series data as observations from a control path,…
Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…
Networks representation aims to encode vertices into a low-dimensional space, while preserving the original network structures and properties. Most existing methods focus on static network structure without considering temporal dynamics.…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) use a neural network to model the instantaneous rate of change in the state of a system. However, despite their apparent suitability for dynamics-governed time-series, NODEs present a few…
We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…
The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Inspired by the ubiquitous use of differential equations to model continuous dynamics across diverse scientific and engineering domains, we propose a novel and intuitive approach to continuous sequence modeling. Our method interprets…
Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…
Temporal networks are characterised by interdependent link events between nodes, forming ordered sequences of links that may represent specific information flows in the system. Nevertheless, representing temporal networks using discrete…
Predicting irregularly spaced event sequences with discrete marks poses significant challenges due to the complex, asynchronous dependencies embedded within continuous-time data streams.Existing sequential approaches capture dependencies…