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The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Deep reinforcement learning has been successfully applied to many control tasks, but the application of such agents in safety-critical scenarios has been limited due to safety concerns. Rigorous testing of these controllers is challenging,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Edoardo Bacci , David Parker

This paper advocates proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ProxMCMC) as a flexible and general Bayesian inference framework for constrained or regularized estimation. Originally introduced in the Bayesian imaging literature, ProxMCMC employs…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Xinkai Zhou , Qiang Heng , Eric C. Chi , Hua Zhou

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

In scenarios with limited available data, training the function-to-function neural PDE solver in an unsupervised manner is essential. However, the efficiency and accuracy of existing methods are constrained by the properties of numerical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Rui Zhang , Qi Meng , Rongchan Zhu , Yue Wang , Wenlei Shi , Shihua Zhang , Zhi-Ming Ma , Tie-Yan Liu

It is one of the most challenging problems in applied mathematics to approximatively solve high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs). Recently, several deep learning-based approximation algorithms for attacking this problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-02-10 Christian Beck , Martin Hutzenthaler , Arnulf Jentzen , Benno Kuckuck

Learning-based methods have been successful in solving complex control tasks without significant prior knowledge about the system. However, these methods typically do not provide any safety guarantees, which prevents their use in…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-11-08 Torsten Koller , Felix Berkenkamp , Matteo Turchetta , Andreas Krause

Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Ingy Elsayed-Aly , David Parker , Lu Feng

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

We present a learning model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Mathijs Schuurmans , Panagiotis Patrinos

Advanced classification algorithms are being increasingly used in safety-critical applications like health-care, engineering, etc. In such applications, miss-classifications made by ML algorithms can result in substantial financial or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Disha Ghandwani , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Yang Lin

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is a popular Bayesian sampling method. For the log-concave distribution function, the method converges exponentially fast, up to a controllable discretization error. However, the method requires the evaluation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-07 Zhiyan Ding , Qin Li

We study a version of the proximal gradient algorithm for which the gradient is intractable and is approximated by Monte Carlo methods (and in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo). We derive conditions on the step size and the Monte Carlo…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Yves F. Atchade , Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines

In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-24 Yin-Lam Chow , Marco Pavone

Active learning of physical systems must commonly respect practical safety constraints, which restricts the exploration of the design space. Gaussian Processes (GPs) and their calibrated uncertainty estimations are widely used for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Jörn Tebbe , Christoph Zimmer , Ansgar Steland , Markus Lange-Hegermann , Fabian Mies

Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

In this paper, we present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) version of the Stochastic Gradient (SG) method for optimization under uncertainty, in order to tackle Optimal Control Problems (OCP) where the constraints are described in the form…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-30 Matthieu Martin , Fabio Nobile , Panagiotis Tsilifis

Over the last few years there have been dramatic advances in our understanding of mathematical and computational models of complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. This has led to a growth in the area of uncertainty quantification as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-06-05 Maziar Raissi , Padmanabhan Seshaiyer