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Understanding the causal interaction of time series variables can contribute to time series data analysis for many real-world applications, such as climate forecasting and extreme weather alerts. However, causal relationships are difficult…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Dongqi Fu , Yada Zhu , Hanghang Tong , Kommy Weldemariam , Onkar Bhardwaj , Jingrui He

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

Explaining underlying causes or effects about events is a challenging but valuable task. We define a novel problem of generating explanations of a time series event by (1) searching cause and effect relationships of the time series with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-04-26 Dongyeop Kang , Varun Gangal , Ang Lu , Zheng Chen , Eduard Hovy

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

Causal inference permits us to discover covert relationships of various variables in time series. However, in most existing works, the variables mentioned above are the dimensions. The causality between dimensions could be cursory, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Yuanhao Liu , Dehui Du , Zihan Jiang , Anyan Huang , Yiyang Li

Real world systems evolve in continuous-time according to their underlying causal relationships, yet their dynamics are often unknown. Existing approaches to learning such dynamics typically either discretize time -- leading to poor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Nicholas Tagliapietra , Katharina Ensinger , Christoph Zimmer , Osman Mian

Causal structure discovery from observational data is fundamental to the causal understanding of autonomous systems such as medical decision support systems, advertising campaigns and self-driving cars. This is essential to solve well-known…

Causal structure discovery in complex dynamical systems is an important challenge for many scientific domains. Although data from (interventional) experiments is usually limited, large amounts of observational time series data sets are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Bart Bussmann , Jannes Nys , Steven Latré

Causal discovery is the subfield of causal inference concerned with estimating the structure of cause-and-effect relationships in a system of interrelated variables, as opposed to quantifying the strength or describing the form of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Rebecca F. Supple , Hannah Worthington , Ben Swallow

Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Harsh Poonia , Felix Divo , Kristian Kersting , Devendra Singh Dhami

The dynamic characteristics of multiphase industrial processes present significant challenges in the field of industrial big data modeling. Traditional soft sensing models frequently neglect the process dynamics and have difficulty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Yimeng He , Le Yao , Xinmin Zhang , Xiangyin Kong , Zhihuan Song

Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique that is useful when working with a large volume of unlabeled data. Complex dynamical systems in real life often entail data streaming from a large number of sources. Although it is desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Sin Yong Tan , Homagni Saha , Margarite Jacoby , Gregor P. Henze , Soumik Sarkar

Existing causal discovery methods based on combinatorial optimization or search are slow, prohibiting their application on large-scale datasets. In response, more recent methods attempt to address this limitation by formulating causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Victor Akinwande , J. Zico Kolter

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Biao Ouyang , Tengxue Zhang , Zhihao Zhuang , Yang Shu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Thomas Jiralerspong , Xiaoyin Chen , Yash More , Vedant Shah , Yoshua Bengio

Causal discovery studies the problem of mining causal relationships between variables from data, which is of primary interest in science. During the past decades, significant amount of progresses have been made toward this fundamental data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-28 Kui Yu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu , Mahsa Ghasemi

Kernel-based methods are used in the context of Granger Causality to enable the identification of nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables. In this paper, we show that two state of the art kernel-based Granger Causality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Fiona Murphy , Alessio Benavoli

Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Huiyang Yi , Xiaojian Shen , Yonggang Wu , Duxin Chen , He Wang , Wenwu Yu