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In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

In model extraction attacks, adversaries can steal a machine learning model exposed via a public API by repeatedly querying it and adjusting their own model based on obtained predictions. To prevent model stealing, existing defenses focus…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Adam Dziedzic , Muhammad Ahmad Kaleem , Yu Shen Lu , Nicolas Papernot

Issues can arise when research focused on fairness, transparency, or safety is conducted separately from research driven by practical deployment concerns and vice versa. This separation creates a growing need for translational work that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jamelle Watson-Daniels , Flavio du Pin Calmon , Alexander D'Amour , Carol Long , David C. Parkes , Berk Ustun

While language models are increasingly more proficient at code generation, they still frequently generate incorrect programs. Many of these programs are obviously wrong, but others are more subtle and pass weaker correctness checks such as…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Alex Gu , Wen-Ding Li , Naman Jain , Theo X. Olausson , Celine Lee , Koushik Sen , Armando Solar-Lezama

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Optimization-based meta-learning offers a promising direction for few-shot learning that is essential for many real-world computer vision applications. However, learning from few samples introduces uncertainty, and quantifying model…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Deep Pandey , Qi Yu

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

He et al. (2018) have called into question the utility of pre-training by showing that training from scratch can often yield similar performance to pre-training. We show that although pre-training may not improve performance on traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Dan Hendrycks , Kimin Lee , Mantas Mazeika

In learning problems, the noise inherent to the task at hand hinders the possibility to infer without a certain degree of uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty, regardless of its wide use, assumes high relevance for security-sensitive…

The comprehensive integration of machine learning healthcare models within clinical practice remains suboptimal, notwithstanding the proliferation of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. A predominant factor hindering…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-12 Ling Huang , Su Ruan , Yucheng Xing , Mengling Feng

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Achintya Gopal

Supervised deep learning models require significant amount of labeled data to achieve an acceptable performance on a specific task. However, when tested on unseen data, the models may not perform well. Therefore, the models need to be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Akshit Achara , Ram Krishna Pandey

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Roi Cohen , Omri Fahn , Gerard de Melo

Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Data in the real world often has an evolving distribution. Thus, machine learning models trained on such data get outdated over time. This phenomenon is called model drift. Knowledge of this drift serves two purposes: (i) Retain an accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Pranoy Panda , Kancheti Sai Srinivas , Vineeth N Balasubramanian , Gaurav Sinha

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Fabian Küppers

Data-driven model identification strategies can be used to obtain phenomenological models that capture the temporal evolution of observable data. While it is usually straightforward to obtain such a model from time series data, for instance…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Mohamed Akrout , Dan Wilson

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov
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