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This work evaluates the impact of contagious cyber-events, over a finite horizon, on firms' financial health and on a cyber insurance portfolio. Our approach builds on key empirical findings from economics and cybersecurity. In economics,…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
We study that the breakdown of epidemic depends on some parameters, that is expressed in epidemic reproduction ratio number. It is noted that when $R_0 $ exceeds 1, the stochastic model have two different results. But, eventually the…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…
In this study, we investigate a stochastic SIR model with media effects. The uniqueness and the existence of a global positive solution are studied. The sufficient conditions of extinction and persistence of the disease are established. We…
This paper develops a new framework to analyze the incidence of labor market shocks, focusing on automation and artificial intelligence. Central to our theory is the distance-dependent elasticity of substitution (DIDES), where worker…
This paper aims at predicting the next maxima values of the state variables of the seasonal SEIR epidemic model and their in-between time intervals. Lorenz's method of analogues is applied on the attractor formed by the maxima of the…
The outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the intricate interplay between public health and economic stability on a global scale. This study proposes a novel reinforcement learning framework designed to optimize health and economic outcomes…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
Consider a Markovian SIR epidemic model in a homogeneous community. To this model we add a rate at which individuals are tested, and once an infectious individual tests positive it is isolated and each of their contacts are traced and…
This paper studies algorithmic strategies to effectively reduce the number of infections in susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic models. We consider a Markov chain SIR model and its two instantiations in the deterministic SIR…
To study the causes of the 2021 Great Resignation, we use text analysis to investigate the changes in work- and quit-related posts between 2018 and 2021 on Reddit. We find that the Reddit discourse evolution resembles the dynamics of the…
No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that captures the spread of competing epidemics over a population network. First, we provide sufficient conditions for the infection level of…
We analyze a novel large-scale social-media-based measure of U.S. job satisfaction, constructed by applying a fine-tuned large language model to 2.6 billion georeferenced tweets, and link it to county-level labor market conditions…
The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…
In this paper, we present a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with individuals wearing facial masks and individuals who do not. The disease transmission rates, the recovering rates and the fraction of individuals who wear masks are…
Crowdsourcing environments have shown promise in solving diverse tasks in limited cost and time. This type of business model involves both the expert and non-expert workers. Interestingly, the success of such models depends on the volume of…