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Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Many empirical applications estimate causal effects of a continuous endogenous variable (treatment) using a binary instrument. Estimation is typically done through linear 2SLS. This approach requires a mean treatment change and causal…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-28 Yingying Dong , Ying-Ying Lee

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

The validity of two-step or plug-in inference methods is questioned in the Bayesian framework. We study semi-parametric models where the plug-in of a non-parametrically modelled nuisance component is used. We show that when the nuisance and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

We study high-dimensional mean estimation in a collaborative setting where data is contributed by $N$ users in batches of size $n$. In this environment, a learner seeks to recover the mean $\mu$ of a true distribution $P$ from a collection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Vladimir Braverman , Yuhan Liu , Junze Yin

This study proposes a framework for estimating demand in differentiated product markets with high dimensional product characteristics, building upon the seminal Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) model, using market level data. We allow for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Hua Jin

Estimating the ratio of two probability densities from finitely many samples, is a central task in machine learning and statistics. In this work, we show that a large class of kernel methods for density ratio estimation suffers from error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Lukas Gruber , Markus Holzleitner , Johannes Lehner , Sepp Hochreiter , Werner Zellinger

Double Reinforcement Learning (DRL) enables efficient inference for policy values in nonparametric Markov decision processes (MDPs), but existing methods face two major obstacles: (1) they require stringent intertemporal overlap conditions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-14 Lars van der Laan , David Hubbard , Allen Tran , Nathan Kallus , Aurélien Bibaut

Semi-supervised (SS) inference has received much attention in recent years. Apart from a moderate-sized labeled data, L, the SS setting is characterized by an additional, much larger sized, unlabeled data, U. The setting of |U| >> |L|,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Yuqian Zhang , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Jelena Bradic

We introduce the Strategic Doubly Robust (SDR) estimator, a novel framework that integrates strategic equilibrium modeling with doubly robust estimation for causal inference in strategic environments. SDR addresses endogenous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Sibo Xiao

In a unified framework, we provide estimators and confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects when the outcome of interest, typically a duration, is subjected to right censoring. Our methodology accommodates average, distributional,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-04 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

We present new large-scale algorithms for fitting a subgradient regularized multivariate convex regression function to $n$ samples in $d$ dimensions -- a key problem in shape constrained nonparametric regression with applications in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Wenyu Chen , Rahul Mazumder

Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Yichen Liu

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In high dimension, it is customary to consider Lasso-type estimators to enforce sparsity. For standard Lasso theory to hold, the regularization parameter should be proportional to the noise level, yet the latter is generally unknown in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-19 Mathurin Massias , Olivier Fercoq , Alexandre Gramfort , Joseph Salmon

We propose self-adaptive training---a new training algorithm that dynamically corrects problematic training labels by model predictions without incurring extra computational cost---to improve generalization of deep learning for potentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-01 Lang Huang , Chao Zhang , Hongyang Zhang

After variable selection, standard inferential procedures for regression parameters may not be uniformly valid; there is no finite-sample size at which a standard test is guaranteed to approximately attain its nominal size. This problem is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oliver Dukes , Vahe Avagyan , Stijn Vansteelandt

We study regression discontinuity designs in which many predetermined covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, can be used to increase the precision of treatment effect estimates. We consider a two-step estimator…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-06 Alexander Kreiß , Christoph Rothe

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In this paper, we introduce an innovative testing procedure for assessing individual hypotheses in high-dimensional linear regression models with measurement errors. This method remains robust even when either the X-model or Y-model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Shijie Cui , Xu Guo , Songshan Yang , Zhe Zhang