Related papers: Whats next? Forecasting scientific research trends
The development of inventions is theorized as a process of searching and recombining existing knowledge components. Previous studies under this theory have examined myriad characteristics of recombined knowledge and their performance…
Predicting highly-cited papers is a long-standing challenge due to the complex interactions of research content, scholarly communities, and temporal dynamics. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) raise the question of whether…
In an article written five years ago [arXiv:0809.0522], we described a method for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation data…
Scientific literature is increasingly siloed by complex language, static disciplinary structures, and potentially sparse keyword systems, making it cumbersome to capture the dynamic nature of modern science. This study addresses these…
With the advancement of science and technology, the number of academic papers published in the world each year has increased almost exponentially. While a large number of research papers highlight the prosperity of science and technology,…
Finding hot topics in scholarly fields can help researchers to keep up with the latest concepts, trends, and inventions in their field of interest. Due to the rarity of complete large-scale scholarly data, earlier studies target this…
Identifying important scholarly literature at an early stage is vital to the academic research community and other stakeholders such as technology companies and government bodies. Due to the sheer amount of research published and the growth…
Citations are used for research evaluation, and it is therefore important to know which factors influence or associate with citation impact of articles. Several citation factors have been studied in the literature. In this study we propose…
Citation count prediction is the task of predicting the number of citations a paper has gained after a period of time. Prior work viewed this as a static prediction task. As papers and their citations evolve over time, considering the…
We use an information-theoretic measure of linguistic similarity to investigate the organization and evolution of scientific fields. An analysis of almost 20M papers from the past three decades reveals that the linguistic similarity is…
Scientific writing builds upon already published papers. Manual identification of publications to read, cite or consider as related papers relies on a researcher's ability to identify fitting keywords or initial papers from which a…
The vast and growing number of publications in all disciplines of science cannot be comprehended by a single human researcher. As a consequence, researchers have to specialize in narrow sub-disciplines, which makes it challenging to uncover…
Stakeholders in the science system need to decide where to place their bets. Example questions include: Which areas of research should get more funding? Who should we hire? Which projects should we abandon and which new projects should we…
Researchers may describe different aspects of past scientific publications in their publications and the descriptions may keep changing in the evolution of science. The diverse and changing descriptions (i.e., citation context) on a…
In recent years, with the increase of social investment in scientific research, the number of research results in various fields has increased significantly. Cross-disciplinary research results have gradually become an emerging frontier…
Forecasting innovation, intended as the emergence of new technological combinations, is a fundamental challenge for science and policy. We show that forthcoming combinations leave an early trace in the collective language of patents, with…
The quest for historically impactful science and technology provides invaluable insight into the innovation dynamics of human society, yet many studies are limited to qualitative and small-scale approaches. Here, we investigate scientific…
The scientific world is changing at a rapid pace, with new technology being developed and new trends being set at an increasing frequency. This paper presents a framework for conducting scientific analyses of academic publications, which is…
Scientific and technological progress is largely driven by firms in many domains, including artificial intelligence and vaccine development. However, we do not know yet whether the success of firms' research activities exhibits dynamic…
This paper introduces a new approach to describe the spread of research topics across disciplines using epidemic models. The approach is based on applying individual-based models from mathematical epidemiology to the diffusion of a research…