Related papers: Multilevel Monte Carlo estimators for derivative-f…

The computational complexity of naive, sampling-based uncertainty quantification for 3D partial differential equations is extremely high. Multilevel approaches, such as multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC), can reduce the complexity significantly,…

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) provides an elegant approach to find maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for latent variable models. However, MCML algorithms are computationally expensive when the latent variables are…

We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E[\max\{U_1(Y), \pi(Y)\}]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[X\ |\ Y]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When…

We develop a framework that allows the use of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) methodology (Giles2015) to calculate expectations with respect to the invariant measure of an ergodic SDE. In that context, we study the (over-damped) Langevin…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. Recently, some VB algorithms are proposed to handle intractable likelihoods with applications such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper,…

Convolutional neural networks have shown to achieve superior performance on image segmentation tasks. However, convolutional neural networks, operating as black-box systems, generally do not provide a reliable measure about the confidence…

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

Modern computers enable methods for design optimization that account for uncertainty in the system---so-called optimization under uncertainty. We propose a metric for OUU that measures the distance between a designer-specified probability…

Designing efficient learning algorithms with complexity guarantees for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large or continuous state and action spaces remains a fundamental challenge. We address this challenge for entropy-regularized MDPs…

Due to the potential benefits of parallelization, designing unbiased Monte Carlo estimators, primarily in the setting of randomized multilevel Monte Carlo, has recently become very popular in operations research and computational…

This paper proposes a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the ergodic SDEs which do not satisfy the contractivity condition. By introducing the change of measure technique, we simulate the path with contractivity and add the…

In this paper we introduce a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for multi-dimensional SDEs driven by Brownian motions. Giles has previously shown that if we combine a numerical approximation with strong order of convergence…

In a wide range of statistical learning problems such as ranking, clustering or metric learning among others, the risk is accurately estimated by $U$-statistics of degree $d\geq 1$, i.e. functionals of the training data with low variance…

A higher-order change-of-measure multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is developed for computing weak approximations of the invariant measures of SDE with drift coefficients that do not satisfy the contractivity condition. This is achieved…

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

Among the various options to estimate uncertainty in deep neural networks, Monte-Carlo dropout is widely popular for its simplicity and effectiveness. However the quality of the uncertainty estimated through this method varies and choices…