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In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

The problem of estimating missing fragments of curves from a functional sample has been widely considered in the literature. However, a majority of the reconstruction methods rely on estimating the covariance matrix or the components of its…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Antonio Elías , Raúl Jiménez , Hanlin Shang

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Ashton Wiens , Douglas Nychka , William Kleibe

We propose a wavelet-based approach to construct consistent estimators of the pointwise H\"older exponent of a multifractional Brownian motion, in the case where this underlying process is not directly observed. The relative merits of our…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Sixian Jin , Qidi Peng , Henry Schellhorn

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-25 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

We propose a novel nonparametric regression framework subject to the positive definiteness constraint. It offers a highly modular approach for estimating covariance functions of stationary processes. Our method can impose positive…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-27 Myeongjong Kang

A crucial assumption to reduce computational complexity in spatial-temporal data analysis is separability, which factors the covariance structure into a purely spatial and a purely temporal component. In this paper, we develop statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Lujia Bai , Holger Dette , Zihao Yuan

In this paper, a posteriori error estimates of functional type for a stationary diffusion problem with nonsymmetric coefficients are derived. The estimate is guaranteed and does not depend on any particular numerical method. An algorithm…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-11-24 Olli Mali

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

This article improves on existing methods to estimate the spectral density of stationary and nonstationary time series assuming a Gaussian process prior. By optimising an appropriate eigendecomposition using a smoothing spline covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Nick James , Max Menzies

We propose localized spectral estimators for the quadratic covariation and the spot covolatility of diffusion processes which are observed discretely with additive observation noise. The eligibility of this approach to lead to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Markus Bibinger , Markus Reiß

Recent advances in local models for point processes have highlighted the need for flexible methodologies to account for the spatial heterogeneity of external covariates influencing process intensity. In this work, we introduce tessellated…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Nicoletta D'Angelo

In this paper, we consider the time-inhomogeneous nonlinear time series regression for a general class of locally stationary time series. On one hand, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

Nonstationarity is a major challenge in analyzing spatial data. For example, daily precipitation measurements may have increased variability and decreased spatial smoothness in areas with high mean rainfall. Common nonstationary covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-31 Geoffrey Colin Lee Peterson , Joseph Guinness , Adam Terando , Brian J. Reich

Building spatial process models that capture nonstationary behavior while delivering computationally efficient inference is challenging. Nonstationary spatially varying kernels (see, e.g., Paciorek, 2003) offer flexibility and richness, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Sébastien Coube-Sisqueille , Sudipto Banerjee , Benoît Liquet

Ambient air pollution measurements from regulatory monitoring networks are routinely used to support epidemiologic studies and environmental policy decision making. However, regulatory monitors are spatially sparse and preferentially…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-02 Wenlong Gong , Brian J. Reich , Joseph Guinness

We introduce computational methods that allow for effective estimation of a flexible, parametric non-stationary spatial model when the field size is too large to compute the multivariate normal likelihood directly. In this method, the field…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-20 Amanda Muyskens , Joseph Guinness , Montserrat Fuentes

Modelling the extremal dependence structure of spatial data is considerably easier if that structure is stationary. However, for data observed over large or complicated domains, non-stationarity will often prevail. Current methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-04 Jordan Richards , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We consider spatially dependent functional data collected under a geostatistics setting, where locations are sampled from a spatial point process. The functional response is the sum of a spatially dependent functional effect and a spatially…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-18 Haozhe Zhang , Yehua Li