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Generating unsafe sub-requirements from a partitioned input space to support verification-guided test cases for formal verification of black-box models is a challenging problem for researchers. The size of the search space makes exhaustive…

Bayesian optimization is a popular tool for data-efficient optimization of expensive objective functions. In real-life applications like engineering design, the designer often wants to take multiple objectives as well as input uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-28 J. Qing , I. Couckuyt , T. Dhaene

In nuclear engineering, modeling and simulations (M&Ss) are widely applied to support risk-informed safety analysis. Since nuclear safety analysis has important implications, a convincing validation process is needed to assess simulation…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-08 Linyu Lin , Nam Dinh

This paper considers Importance Sampling (IS) for the estimation of tail risks of a loss defined in terms of a sophisticated object such as a machine learning feature map or a mixed integer linear optimisation formulation. Assuming only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-21 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

We study the safety verification problem for discrete-time stochastic systems. We propose an approach for safety verification termed set-erosion strategy that verifies the safety of a stochastic system on a safe set through the safety of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-04 Zishun Liu , Saber Jafarpour , Yongxin Chen

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a framework for global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate objective functions. Classical BO methods assume that the objective function is a black box. However, internal information about objective function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

Although an ever-growing number of applications employ deep learning based systems for prediction, decision-making, or state estimation, almost no certification processes have been established that would allow such systems to be deployed in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Romeo Valentin

We consider black-box optimization in which only an extremely limited number of function evaluations, on the order of around 100, are affordable and the function evaluations must be performed in even fewer batches of a limited number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-19 Carlos Ansotegui , Meinolf Sellmann , Tapan Shah , Kevin Tierney

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Computer models are widely used to study complex real world physical systems. However, there are major limitations to their direct use including: their complex structure; large numbers of inputs and outputs; and long evaluation times.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Jonathan Owen , Ian Vernon

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Woo-Jeong Baek , Tom P. Huck , Joschka Haas , Jonas Lewandrowski , Tamim Asfour , Torsten Kröger

Is there a way to design powerful AI systems based on machine learning methods that would satisfy probabilistic safety guarantees? With the long-term goal of obtaining a probabilistic guarantee that would apply in every context, we consider…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Yoshua Bengio , Michael K. Cohen , Nikolay Malkin , Matt MacDermott , Damiano Fornasiere , Pietro Greiner , Younesse Kaddar

Balancing safety and efficiency when planning in crowded scenarios with uncertain dynamics is challenging where it is imperative to accomplish the robot's mission without incurring any safety violations. Typically, chance constraints are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Khaled A. Mustafa , Oscar de Groot , Xinwei Wang , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

We present a safety verification framework for design-time and run-time assurance of learning-based components in aviation systems. Our proposed framework integrates two novel methodologies. From the design-time assurance perspective, we…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-17 Ali Baheri , Hao Ren , Benjamin Johnson , Pouria Razzaghi , Peng Wei

The rise in computational capability has increased reliance on simulations to inform aircraft design. However aircraft airworthiness testing for flight certification remains rooted in real-world experiments performed after manufacturing an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-28 Jayant Mukhopadhaya

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-07 Ritchie Lee , Ole J. Mengshoel , Anshu Saksena , Ryan Gardner , Daniel Genin , Joshua Silbermann , Michael Owen , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Bayesian optimization (BO) provides a powerful framework for optimizing black-box, expensive-to-evaluate functions. It is therefore an attractive tool for engineering design problems, typically involving multiple objectives. Thanks to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Navid Ansari , Alireza Javanmardi , Eyke Hüllermeier , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

In Bayesian optimization, accounting for the importance of the output relative to the input is a crucial yet challenging exercise, as it can considerably improve the final result but often involves inaccurate and cumbersome entropy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-30 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

We derive high-dimensional Gaussian comparison results for the standard $V$-fold cross-validated risk estimates. Our results combine a recent stability-based argument for the low-dimensional central limit theorem of cross-validation with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-15 Nicholas Kissel , Jing Lei