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In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-06 Piergiorgio Castioni , Sergio Gòmez , Clara Granell , Alex Arenas

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Kaja Bilinska , Nicolaos Kourentzes , Rafal Weron

Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-24 Chang Zhai , Ping Chen , Zhuo Jin , David Pitt

The delivery of drug samples allows increasing sales of pharmaceutical products [6]. However, we discovered some problems that can be improved in the supply chain that delivers drug samples (used for the treatment of excess glucose).…

Many commercial products are sold with warranties and indirectly through dealers. The manufacturer-retailer distribution mechanism results in serious missing data problems in field return data, as the sales date for an unreturned unit is…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-04 Zhisheng Ye , Hon Keung Tony Ng

Based on the online transaction data of COSCO group's centralized procurement platform, this paper studies the clustering method of time series type data. The different methods of similarity calculation, different clustering methods with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Yun Bai , Suling Jia , Xixi Li

Time series forecasting is essential for agents to make decisions. Traditional approaches rely on statistical methods to forecast given past numeric values. In practice, end-users often rely on visualizations such as charts and plots to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Srijan Sood , Zhen Zeng , Naftali Cohen , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Tesfalem Abate Tegegn , Yibeltal Adane Terefe

The optimal allocation of vaccines to population subgroups over time is a challenging health care management problem. In the context of a pandemic, the interaction between vaccination policies adopted by multiple agents and the cooperation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-22 David Rey , Ahmed W Hammad , Meead Saberi

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention, leading to the de-velopment of a wide range of approaches, from traditional statistical meth-ods to advanced deep learning models. Among them, the Auto-Regressive Integrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Thanh Son Nguyen , Van Thanh Nguyen , Dang Minh Duc Nguyen

In this work we focus on efficient heuristics for solving a class of stochastic planning problems that arise in a variety of business, investment, and industrial applications. The problem is best described in terms of future buy and sell…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Milos Hauskrecht , Eli Upfal

Processing and analyzing time series data\-sets have become a central issue in many domains requiring data management systems to support time series as a native data type. A crucial prerequisite of these systems is time series matching,…

Databases · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Lars Kegel , Claudio Hartmann , Maik Thiele , Wolfgang Lehner

Our research addresses the critical challenge of managing blood transfusions and optimizing allocation in resource-constrained regions. We present heuristic matching algorithms for donor-patient and blood bank selection, alongside machine…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-18 El Arbi Belfarsi , Sophie Brubaker , Maria Valero

Developing accurate and reliable methods to estimate vaccine protection is a key goal in immunology and public health. While several statistical methods have been proposed, their potential inaccuracy in capturing fast intra-seasonal waning…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-26 Ariel Nikas , Hasan Ahmed , Veronika I. Zarnitsyna

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Rameshwar Garg , Shriya Barpanda , Girish Rao Salanke N S , Ramya S

High-tech systems are typically produced in two stages: 1) Production of components using specialized equipment and staff; 2) System assembly/integration. Component production capacity is subject to fluctuations, causing a high risk of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-18 Mirjam S. Meijer , Dennis Schol , Willem van Jaarsveld , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

Value-oriented forecasts for two-stage power system operational problems have been demonstrated to reduce cost, but prove to be computationally challenging for large-scale systems because the underlying optimization problem must be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Mehrnoush Ghazanfariharandi , Robert Mieth

We consider a SIR model with vaccination strategy on a sparse configuration model random graph. We show the convergence of the system when the number of nodes grows and characterize the scaling limits. Then, we prove the existence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-26 Emanuel Javier Ferreyra , Matthieu Jonckheere , Juan Pablo Pinasco

In this paper, we extend the classical SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model from mathematical epidemiology by incorporating a vaccinated compartment, V, accounting for an imperfect vaccine with waning efficacy over…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-30 Joseph Páez Chávez , Aytül Gökçe , Thomas Götz , Burcu Gürbüz

In economics we often face a system, which intrinsically imposes a structure of hierarchy of its components, i.e., in modelling trade accounts related to foreign exchange or in optimization of regional air protection policy. A problem of…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-04 Daniel Kosiorowski , Dominik Mielczarek , Jerzy. P. Rydlewski