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Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Biswajit Paria , Rajat Sen , Amr Ahmed , Abhimanyu Das

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

As the popularity of hierarchical point forecast reconciliation methods increases, there is a growing interest in probabilistic forecast reconciliation. Many studies have utilized machine learning or deep learning techniques to implement…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Guanyu Zhang , Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

The increasing complexity of supply chains and the rising costs associated with defective or substandard goods (bad goods) highlight the urgent need for advanced predictive methodologies to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Bishwajit Prasad Gond

This article intends to systematically identify and comparatively analyze state-of-the-art supply chain (SC) forecasting strategies and technologies. A novel framework has been proposed incorporating Big Data Analytics in SC Management…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-04 Md Abrar Jahin , Md Sakib Hossain Shovon , Jungpil Shin , Istiyaque Ahmed Ridoy , M. F. Mridha

Purpose: Only few companies were able to produce vaccine again COVID-19. Thus, one producer supplied it to many countries. The distribution was not effective. Some countries overstocked the vaccine while other countries were not able to buy…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-20 Béla Vizvári , Gergely Kovács

Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-22 Edwin C. Yuan , David L. Alderson , Sean Stromberg , Jean M. Carlson

In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-23 N. L. Barreiro , C. I. Ventura , T. Govezensky , M. Núñez , P. G. Bolcatto , R. A. Barrio

This paper addresses a common problem with hierarchical time series. Time series analysis demands the series for a model to be the sum of multiple series at corresponding sub-levels. Hierarchical Time Series presents a two-fold problem.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-27 Seema Sangari , Xinyan Zhang

Accurate demand forecasting is critical for supply chain optimization, yet remains difficult in practice due to hierarchical complexity, domain shifts, and evolving external factors. While recent foundation models offer strong potential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Wei Yang , Defu Cao , Yan Liu

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that stocking and procuring vaccines are different from the inventory holding problems of production. The safety of the supply is more important than cost minimization. The Hungarian inventory model is applied…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Aysun Pınarbaşı , Béla Vizvári

Optimal decision-making compels us to anticipate the future at different horizons. However, in many domains connecting together predictions from multiple time horizons and abstractions levels across their organization becomes all the more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Julien Leprince , Henrik Madsen , Jan Kloppenborg Møller , Wim Zeiler

Effective and efficient scheduling of vaccine distribution can significantly impact vaccine uptake, which is critical to controlling the spread of infectious diseases. Ineffective scheduling can lead to waste, delays, and low vaccine…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-13 Nicholas Uhorchak , Ruben A. Proano , Sandra Eksioglu , Fatih Cengil , Burak Eksioglu

Hierarchical time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making in various domains while presenting significant challenges for modelling as they involve multiple levels of aggregation, constraints, and availability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Zhao Yingjie , Mahdi Abolghasemi

This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate for each city, acting as a control…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-29 Lucas Machado Moschen , María Soledad Aronna

Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-05 Daniele Girolimetto , Tommaso Di Fonzo

The COVID19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of resilience in supply chains, as global networks fail from disruptions at single nodes and connections. Through an overview of the existing vaccine and pharmaceutical supply chain publications…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-01 Maureen S. Golan , Benjamin D. Trump , Jeffrey C. Cegan , Igor Linkov

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-01 Han Lin Shang

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-13 Sander Tonkens , Paul de Klaver , Mauro Salazar

Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2017-02-24 Niels Dalum Hansen , Kåre Mølbak , Ingemar J. Cox , Christina Lioma