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ML models deployed in production often have to face unknown domain changes, fundamentally different from their training settings. Performance prediction models carry out the crucial task of measuring the impact of these changes on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Simona Maggio , Victor Bouvier , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-03 Seamus Somerstep , Ya'acov Ritov , Yuekai Sun

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Anna Sokol , Nuno Moniz , Nitesh Chawla

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Score-based diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance for inverse problems, but their practical deployment is hindered by long inference times and cumbersome hyperparameter tuning. While pretrained diffusion models can be reused…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Julio Oscanoa , Irmak Sivgin , Cagan Alkan , Daniel Ennis , John Pauly , Mert Pilanci , Shreyas Vasanawala

Following the wide-spread adoption of machine learning models in real-world applications, the phenomenon of performativity, i.e. model-dependent shifts in the test distribution, becomes increasingly prevalent. Unfortunately, since models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-21 Ivan Kirev , Lyuben Baltadzhiev , Nikola Konstantinov

In algorithmic markets, predictive models become part of the data-generating process they aim to forecast. Once their outputs are converted into trades, allocations, execution schedules, or risk controls, they change the future data on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Marc Schmitt

Parameter estimation in structural dynamics generally involves inferring the values of physical, geometric, or even customized parameters based on first principles or expert knowledge, which is challenging for complex structural systems. In…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Mingyuan Zhou , Haoze Song , Wenjing Ye , Wei Wang , Zhilu Lai

Feature engineering is a crucial step in the process of predictive modeling. It involves the transformation of given feature space, typically using mathematical functions, with the objective of reducing the modeling error for a given…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Udayan Khurana , Horst Samulowitz , Deepak Turaga

Performativity means that the deployment of a predictive model incentivizes agents to strategically adapt their behavior, thereby inducing a model-dependent distribution shift. Practitioners often repeatedly retrain the model on data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Siyi Wang , Zifan Wang , Karl H. Johansson

Regression evaluation has been performed for decades. Some metrics have been identified to be robust against shifting and scaling of the data but considering the different distributions of data is much more difficult to address (imbalance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-14 Mario Michael Krell , Bilal Wehbe

Representation learning plays a crucial role in automated feature selection, particularly in the context of high-dimensional data, where non-parametric methods often struggle. In this study, we focus on supervised learning scenarios where…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-08 Bertille Follain , Francis Bach

Adaptive experiments are used extensively in online platforms, healthcare and biotechnology, and a variety of other settings. In many of these applications, the main goal is not to precisely estimate a treatment effect, but to demonstrate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Guido Imbens , Lorenzo Masoero , Alexander Rakhlin , Thomas S. Richardson , Suhas Vijaykumar

With the widespread deployment of deep learning models, they influence their environment in various ways. The induced distribution shifts can lead to unexpected performance degradation in deployed models. Existing methods to anticipate…

We consider contextual bandit learning under distribution shift when reward vectors are ordered according to a given preference cone. We propose an adaptive-discretization and optimistic elimination based policy that self-tunes to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Apurv Shukla , P. R. Kumar

Decision-makers often act in response to data-driven predictions, with the goal of achieving favorable outcomes. In such settings, predictions don't passively forecast the future; instead, predictions actively shape the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Michael P. Kim , Juan C. Perdomo

In this work, we propose ModelPred, a framework that helps to understand the impact of changes in training data on a trained model. This is critical for building trust in various stages of a machine learning pipeline: from cleaning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Yingyan Zeng , Jiachen T. Wang , Si Chen , Hoang Anh Just , Ran Jin , Ruoxi Jia

We study the setting of \emph{performative reinforcement learning} where the deployed policy affects both the reward, and the transition of the underlying Markov decision process. Prior work~\parencite{MTR23} has addressed this problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Debmalya Mandal , Goran Radanovic

We propose a general approach for supervised learning with structured output spaces, such as combinatorial and polyhedral sets, that is based on minimizing estimated conditional risk functions. Given a loss function defined over pairs of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Chong Yang Goh , Patrick Jaillet

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok