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Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

We propose a method for training a deterministic deep model that can find and reject out of distribution data points at test time with a single forward pass. Our approach, deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ), builds upon ideas of…

Current person image retrieval methods have achieved great improvements in accuracy metrics. However, they rarely describe the reliability of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware Learning (UAL) method to remedy…

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional…

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning (SciML) becomes increasingly critical as neural networks (NNs) are being widely adopted in addressing complex problems across various scientific disciplines. Representative…

Time-series with volatility clustering pose a unique challenge to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for returns forecasts. Methods for UQ such as Deep Evidential regression offer a simple way of quantifying return forecast uncertainty without…

Machine-learning models can be fooled by adversarial examples, i.e., carefully-crafted input perturbations that force models to output wrong predictions. While uncertainty quantification has been recently proposed to detect adversarial…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are…

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

With increasing computational demand, Neural-Network (NN) based models are being developed as pre-trained surrogates for different thermohydraulics phenomena. An area where this approach has shown promise is in developing higher-fidelity…

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised…

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g.,…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for assessing the reliability of Earth observation (EO) products. However, the extensive use of machine learning models in EO introduces an additional layer of complexity, as those models…

Inverse problems aim to determine model parameters of a mathematical problem from given observational data. Neural networks can provide an efficient tool to solve these problems. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty…