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Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

Modern technologies are generating ever-increasing amounts of data. Making use of these data requires methods that are both statistically sound and computationally efficient. Typically, the statistical and computational aspects are treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-15 Mahsa Taheri , Néhémy Lim , Johannes Lederer

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Václav Voráček , Francesco Orabona

The aim of this paper is to compare the performances of the optimal strategy under parameters mis-specification and of a technical analysis trading strategy. The setting we consider is that of a stochastic asset price model where the trend…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-03 Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed , Grégoire Loeper , Frédéric Abergel

We provide a review of recent developments in the calculation of standard errors and test statistics for statistical inference. While much of the focus of the last two decades in economics has been on generating unbiased coefficients,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-04 Jeffrey D. Michler , Anna Josephson

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Apoorva Karagappa , Pawandeep Kaur Betz , Jonas Gilg , Moritz Zeumer , Andreas Gerndt , Bernhard Preim

Manual annotations are a prerequisite for many applications of machine learning. However, weaknesses in the annotation process itself are easy to overlook. In particular, scholars often choose what information to give to annotators without…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Kenneth Joseph , Lisa Friedland , William Hobbs , Oren Tsur , David Lazer

The main purpose of this note is to pose a couple of problems which are easily formulated thought some seem to be not yet solved. These problems are of general interest for discrete mathematics including a new twig of a bough of theory of…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2010-11-16 A. K. Kwasniewski

We aim to explain whether a stress memory task has a significant impact on tonal coarticulation. We contribute a novel approach to analyse tonal coarticulation in phonetics, where several f0 contours are compared with respect to their…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-10 Valentina Masarotto , Yiya Chen

These informal notes are concerned with sums and averages in various situations in analysis.

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2010-08-17 Stephen Semmes

This chapter argues for more informed target metrics for the statistical processing of stylistic variation in text collections. Much as operationalised relevance proved a useful goal to strive for in information retrieval, research in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-11 Jussi Karlgren

The growing need to analyze large collections of documents has led to great developments in topic modeling. Since documents are frequently associated with other related variables, such as labels or ratings, much interest has been placed on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-20 Filipe Rodrigues , Mariana Lourenço , Bernardete Ribeiro , Francisco Pereira

In the last two decades, Bayesian inference has become commonplace in astronomy. At the same time, the choice of algorithms, terminology, notation, and interpretation of Bayesian inference varies from one sub-field of astronomy to the next,…

Stuttering is a complex disorder that requires specialized expertise for effective assessment and treatment. This paper presents an effort to enhance the FluencyBank dataset with a new stuttering annotation scheme based on established…

Indirect evidence is crucial for successful statistical practice. Sometimes, however, it is better used informally. Future efforts should be directed toward understanding better the connection between statistical methods and scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-08 Robert E. Kass

Violence risk assessment in psychiatric institutions enables interventions to avoid violence incidents. Clinical notes written by practitioners and available in electronic health records (EHR) are valuable resources that are seldom used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Pablo Mosteiro , Emil Rijcken , Kalliopi Zervanou , Uzay Kaymak , Floortje Scheepers , Marco Spruit

The utilization of statistical methods an their applications within the new field of study known as Topological Data Analysis has has tremendous potential for broadening our exploration and understanding of complex, high-dimensional data…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-19 Patrick S. Medina , R. W. Doerge

Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Heinrich Jiang , Been Kim , Melody Y. Guan , Maya Gupta

There are various approaches to the problem of how one is supposed to conduct a statistical analysis. Different analyses can lead to contradictory conclusions in some problems so this is not a satisfactory state of affairs. It seems that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Michael Evans

Natural language processing tools have become frequently used in social sciences such as economics, political science, and sociology. Many publications apply topic modeling to elicit latent topics in text corpora and their development over…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-30 W. Benedikt Schmal