English
Related papers

Related papers: QuantProb: Generalizing Probabilities along with P…

200 papers

With deep neural networks providing state-of-the-art machine learning models for numerous machine learning tasks, quantifying the robustness of these models has become an important area of research. However, most of the research literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-08 Tsui-Wei Weng , Pin-Yu Chen , Lam M. Nguyen , Mark S. Squillante , Ivan Oseledets , Luca Daniel

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Learning with softmax cross-entropy on one-hot labels often leads to overconfident predictions and poor robustness under noise or perturbations. Label smoothing mitigates this by redistributing some confidence uniformly, but treats all…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-10-02 Fang Qi , Lu Peng , Zhengming Ding

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Jiayu Yao , Weiwei Pan , Soumya Ghosh , Finale Doshi-Velez

Calibration of large-scale differential equation models to observational or experimental data is a widespread challenge throughout applied sciences and engineering. A crucial bottleneck in state-of-the art calibration methods is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Jon Cockayne , Andrew B. Duncan

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

The unwavering success of deep learning in the past decade led to the increasing prevalence of deep learning methods in various application fields. However, the downsides of deep learning, most prominently its lack of trustworthiness, may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Holger Boche , Vit Fojtik , Adalbert Fono , Gitta Kutyniok

Estimating the data uncertainty in regression tasks is often done by learning a quantile function or a prediction interval of the true label conditioned on the input. It is frequently observed that quantile regression -- a vanilla algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Yu Bai , Song Mei , Huan Wang , Caiming Xiong

This note presents a simple way to add a count (or quantile) constraint to a regression neural net, such that given $n$ samples in the training set it guarantees that the prediction of $m<n$ samples will be larger than the actual value (the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Dvir Ben Or , Michael Kolomenkin , Gil Shabat

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) represent the state of the art in many tasks. However, due to their overparameterization, their generalization capabilities are in doubt and still a field under study. Consequently, DNN can overfit and assign…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos , Roberto Paredes

Deep learning has enjoyed tremendous success in a variety of applications but its application to quantile regressions remains scarce. A major advantage of the deep learning approach is its flexibility to model complex data in a more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Qixian Zhong , Jane-Ling Wang

Quantum neural networks (QNNs) have become an important tool for understanding the physical world, but their advantages and limitations are not fully understood. Some QNNs with specific encoding methods can be efficiently simulated by…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-10-31 Yuxuan Du , Yibo Yang , Dacheng Tao , Min-Hsiu Hsieh

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hongfei Du , Emre Barut , Fang Jin

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Negativities in quasiprobability distributions, a foundational concept originating in quantum optics, serve as a fundamental signature of quantum nonclassicality, with entanglement quasiprobabilities offering a necessary and sufficient…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Yu-Zhuo Li , Li-Chao Peng , Ke-Mi Xu