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We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore,…

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Traditional recommender systems aim to estimate a user's rating to an item based on observed ratings from the population. As with all observational studies, hidden confounders, which are factors that affect both item exposures and user…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Yaochen Zhu , Jing Yi , Jiayi Xie , Zhenzhong Chen

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

This paper introduces the Descriptive Variational Autoencoder (DVAE), an unsupervised and end-to-end trainable neural network for predicting vehicle trajectories that provides partial interpretability. The novel approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Marion Neumeier , Andreas Tollkühn , Thomas Berberich , Michael Botsch

Treatment effect estimation from observational data has attracted significant attention across various research fields. However, many widely used methods rely on the unconfoundedness assumption, which is often unrealistic due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Di Fan , Renlei Jiang , Yunhao Wen , Chuanhou Gao

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

Identification theory for causal effects in causal models associated with hidden variable directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is well studied. However, the corresponding algorithms are underused due to the complexity of estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Rohit Bhattacharya , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser

Confounding seriously impairs our ability to learn about causal relations from observational data. Confounding can be defined as a statistical association between two variables due to inputs from a common source (the confounder). For…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-17 Anders Ledberg

Disentangled representation learning aims to represent the underlying generative factors of a dataset in a latent representation independently of one another. In our work, we propose a discrete variational autoencoder (VAE) based model…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Gulcin Baykal , Melih Kandemir , Gozde Unal

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment on the entire response distribution is an important yet challenging task. For instance, one might be interested in how a pension plan affects not only the average savings among all individuals but…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-07 Lucas Kook , Niklas Pfister

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Unobserved confounding is a major hurdle for causal inference from observational data. Confounders---the variables that affect both the causes and the outcome---induce spurious non-causal correlations between the two. Wang & Blei (2018)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-31 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are influential generative models with rich representation capabilities from the deep neural network architecture and Bayesian method. However, VAE models have a weakness that assign a higher likelihood to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Xuming Ran , Mingkun Xu , Lingrui Mei , Qi Xu , Quanying Liu

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn from multiple source domains a model that can generalize well on unseen target domains. Existing DG methods mainly learn the representations with invariant marginal distribution of the input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Junkun Yuan , Xu Ma , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mingming Gong , Xiangyu Liu , Fei Wu , Lanfen Lin , Kun Kuang

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Wentao Gao , Thuc Duy Le

Recent advances in electron, scanning probe, optical, and chemical imaging and spectroscopy yield bespoke data sets containing the information of structure and functionality of complex systems. In many cases, the resulting data sets are…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-11-15 Yongtao Liu , Bryan D Huey , Maxim A. Ziatdinov , Sergei V. Kalinin

A recent literature considers causal inference using noisy proxies for unobserved confounding factors. The proxies are divided into two sets that are independent conditional on the confounders. One set of proxies are `negative control…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-11 Ben Deaner

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-31 Shengjia Zhao , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Yubai Yuan , Annie Qu
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