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Sequential decision making under uncertainty is studied in a mixed observability domain. The goal is to maximize the amount of information obtained on a partially observable stochastic process under constraints imposed by a fully observable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-03-16 Mikko Lauri , Risto Ritala

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have demonstrated the capability of learning complex control policies from many types of environments. When learning policies for safety-critical applications, it is essential to be sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Yichuan Charlie Tang , Jian Zhang , Ruslan Salakhutdinov

We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-28 Victor Chernozhukov , Carlos Cinelli , Whitney Newey , Amit Sharma , Vasilis Syrgkanis

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Off-policy learning is a framework for optimizing policies without deploying them, using data collected by another policy. In recommender systems, this is especially challenging due to the imbalance in logged data: some items are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Matej Cief , Branislav Kveton , Michal Kompan

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation in the multi-armed bandit model with bounded rewards, and develop minimax rate-optimal procedures under three settings. First, when the behavior policy is known, we show that the Switch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-20 Cong Ma , Banghua Zhu , Jiantao Jiao , Martin J. Wainwright

Many applied decision-making problems have a dynamic component: The policymaker needs not only to choose whom to treat, but also when to start which treatment. For example, a medical doctor may choose between postponing treatment (watchful…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-01 Xinkun Nie , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

As artificial agents become increasingly capable, what internal structure is *necessary* for an agent to act competently under uncertainty? Classical results show that optimal control can be *implemented* using belief states or world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Aran Nayebi

We study the offline contextual bandit problem, where we aim to acquire an optimal policy using observational data. However, this data usually contains two deficiencies: (i) some variables that confound actions are not observed, and (ii)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Siyu Chen , Yitan Wang , Zhaoran Wang , Zhuoran Yang

Randomized experiments can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, estimates of population treatment effects can be biased when the experimental sample and the target population differ. In this case, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Wenqi Shi , Xi Lin

We consider the problem of learning from training data obtained in different contexts, where the underlying context distribution is unknown and is estimated empirically. We develop a robust method that takes into account the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-18 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

Stochastic policies (also known as relaxed controls) are widely used in continuous-time reinforcement learning algorithms. However, executing a stochastic policy and evaluating its performance in a continuous-time environment remain open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Yanwei Jia , Du Ouyang , Yufei Zhang

Most bandit policies are designed to either minimize regret in any problem instance, making very few assumptions about the underlying environment, or in a Bayesian sense, assuming a prior distribution over environment parameters. The former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Branislav Kveton , Martin Mladenov , Chih-Wei Hsu , Manzil Zaheer , Csaba Szepesvari , Craig Boutilier

In randomized trials involving multiple treatments, bivariate survival outcomes present significant analytical challenges for making decisions. This paper addresses the problem of deriving optimal individualized treatment rules to maximize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Kun Ren , Yifan Cui , Wen Su

We consider a special case of bandit problems, namely batched bandits. Motivated by natural restrictions of recommender systems and e-commerce platforms, we assume that a learning agent observes responses batched in groups over a certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Danil Provodin , Pratik Gajane , Mykola Pechenizkiy , Maurits Kaptein

The literature focuses on the mean of welfare regret, which can lead to undesirable treatment choice due to sensitivity to sampling uncertainty. We propose to minimize the mean of a nonlinear transformation of regret and show that singleton…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-03 Toru Kitagawa , Sokbae Lee , Chen Qiu

Recent policy optimization approaches (Schulman et al., 2015a; 2017) have achieved substantial empirical successes by constructing new proxy optimization objectives. These proxy objectives allow stable and low variance policy learning, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-24 Marcin B. Tomczak , Dongho Kim , Peter Vrancx , Kee-Eung Kim

Randomized controlled trials are not only the golden standard in medicine and vaccine trials but have spread to many other disciplines like behavioral economics, making it an important interdisciplinary tool for scientists. When designing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Tassilo Schwarz