Related papers: Meaningful Causal Aggregation and Paradoxical Conf…

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Granger causality analysis is a popular method for inference on directed interactions in complex systems of many variables. A shortcoming of the standard framework for Granger causality is that it only allows for examination of interactions…

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the…

Bidirectional causal relationships arising from mutual interactions between variables are commonly observed within biomedical, econometrical, and social science contexts. When such relationships are further complicated by unobserved…

Our aim is to detect mechanistic interaction between the effects of two causal factors on a binary response, as an aid to identifying situations where the effects are mediated by a common mechanism. We propose a formalization of mechanistic…

Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the…

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Causal mediation analysis is used to evaluate direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest through an intermediate variable or a mediator.It is difficult to identify the direct and indirect causal effects…

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Consider a situation with two treatments, the first of which is randomized but the second is not, and the multifactor version of this. Interest is in treatment effects, defined using standard factorial notation. We define estimators for the…

Identification of standard mediated effects such as the natural indirect effect relies on heavy causal assumptions. By circumventing such assumptions, so-called randomized interventional indirect effects have gained popularity in the…

Causal models with unobserved variables impose nontrivial constraints on the distributions over the observed variables. When a common cause of two variables is unobserved, it is impossible to uncover the causal relation between them without…

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal…

Instrumental variables have proven useful, in particular within the social sciences and economics, for making inference about the causal effect of a random variable, B, on another random variable, C, in the presence of unobserved…

Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition…

In causal inference, principal stratification is a framework for dealing with a posttreatment intermediate variable between a treatment and an outcome, in which the principal strata are defined by the joint potential values of the…

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

This paper explains why internal and external validity cannot be simultaneously maximised. It introduces "evidential states" to represent the information available for causal inference and shows that routine study operations (restriction,…

For obtaining causal inferences that are objective, and therefore have the best chance of revealing scientific truths, carefully designed and executed randomized experiments are generally considered to be the gold standard. Observational…