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Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-30 Faicel Chamroukhi , Allou Samé , Gérard Govaert , Patrice Aknin

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Anaísa Lucena , Ana Martins , Armando J. Pinho , Sónia Gouveia

Modeling and interpreting spike train data is a task of central importance in computational neuroscience, with significant translational implications. Two popular classes of data-driven models for this task are autoregressive Point Process…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-30 M. E. Rule , G. Sanguinetti

We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 T. N. Nisslbeck , Wouter M. Kouw

This work presents a novel data augmentation solution for non-stationary multivariate time series and its application to failure prognostics. The method extends previous work from the authors which is based on time-varying autoregressive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-25 Douglas Baptista de Souza , Bruno Paes Leao

The sparse modeling is an evident manifestation capturing the parsimony principle just described, and sparse models are widespread in statistics, physics, information sciences, neuroscience, computational mathematics, and so on. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Jianyi Lin

Numerous applications of machine learning involve representing probability distributions over high-dimensional data. We propose autoregressive quantile flows, a flexible class of normalizing flow models trained using a novel objective based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Phillip Si , Allan Bishop , Volodymyr Kuleshov

A new version of the partial autocorrelation plot and a new family of subset autoregressive models are introduced. A comprehensive approach to model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking is developed for these models. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-07 A. Ian McLeod , Ying Zhang

It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-18 Lijing Ma , Andrew Grant , Georgy Sofronov

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Zhe Wang , Jiaxin Shi , Nicolas Heess , Arthur Gretton , Michalis K. Titsias

Medical ultrasound imaging relies heavily on high-quality signal processing to provide reliable and interpretable image reconstructions. Conventionally, reconstruction algorithms where derived from physical principles. These algorithms rely…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-21 Ben Luijten , Nishith Chennakeshava , Yonina C. Eldar , Massimo Mischi , Ruud J. G. van Sloun

In this article, we review the literature on design and analysis of recursive algorithms for reconstructing a time sequence of sparse signals from compressive measurements. The signals are assumed to be sparse in some transform domain or in…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-29 Namrata Vaswani , Jinchun Zhan

Autoregressive models use chain rule to define a joint probability distribution as a product of conditionals. These conditionals need to be normalized, imposing constraints on the functional families that can be used. To increase…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Chenlin Meng , Lantao Yu , Yang Song , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Fei Wu , Kung-Sik Chan

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

Time series observations are ubiquitous in astronomy, and are generated to distinguish between different types of supernovae, to detect and characterize extrasolar planets and to classify variable stars. These time series are usually…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-13 Susana Eyheramendy , Felipe Elorrieta , Wilfredo Palma

Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (MMRMs) are ubiquitous when analyzing outcomes of clinical trials. However, the linearity of the fixed-effect structure in these models largely restrict their use to estimating treatment effects that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-23 Lars Lau Raket

Case vs control comparisons have been the classical approach to the study of neurological diseases. However, most patients will not fall cleanly into either group. Instead, clinicians will typically find patients that cannot be classified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-20 Iead Rezek , Christian Beckmann

Contemporary time series analysis has seen more and more tensor type data, from many fields. For example, stocks can be grouped according to Size, Book-to-Market ratio, and Operating Profitability, leading to a 3-way tensor observation at…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-05 Zebang Li , Han Xiao

COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore epidemiological models which, though describing a wealth of behaviors, have previously received little attention in signal processing literature. In this work, a generalized time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Barbara Pascal , Samuel Vaiter