Related papers: The Estimation Risk in Extreme Systemic Risk Forec…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
Marginal expected shortfall (MES) is an important measure when assessing and quantifying the contribution of the financial institution to a systemic crisis. In this paper, we propose time-lagged marginal expected shortfall (TMES) as a…
Systemic risk measures were introduced to capture the global risk and the corresponding contagion effects that is generated by an interconnected system of financial institutions. To this purpose, two approaches were suggested. In the first…
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk…
The issue related to the quantification of the tail risk of cryptocurrencies is considered in this paper. The statistical methods used in the study are those concerning recent developments in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for weakly dependent…
To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…
The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient…
Risk contagion concerns any entity dealing with large scale risks. Suppose (X,Y) denotes a risk vector pertaining to two components in some system. A relevant measurement of risk contagion would be to quantify the amount of influence of…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…
Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk…
Although quantile regression to calculate risk measures has been widely established in the financial literature, when considering data observed at mixed--frequency, an extension is needed. In this paper, a model is suggested built on a…
We discuss the coherence properties of Expected Shortfall (ES) as a financial risk measure. This statistic arises in a natural way from the estimation of the "average of the 100p % worst losses" in a sample of returns to a portfolio. Here p…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small…