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Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

We study a problem of finding an optimal stopping strategy to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. Taking a Bayesian approach, we model the initial beliefs of an individual about the drift parameter by allowing an arbitrary probability…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-03 Erik Ekström , Juozas Vaicenavicius

Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-02 Kimberly J. Schlesinger , Chantal Nguyen , Imtiaz Ali , Jean M. Carlson

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Robert C. Dalang , Albert N. Shiryaev

In many learning based control methodologies, learning the unknown dynamic model precedes the control phase, while the aim is to control the system such that it remains in some safe region of the state space. In this work, our aim is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-14 Farhad Farokhi , Alex Leong , Iman Shames , Mohammad Zamani

We identify an issue in recent approaches to learning-based control that reformulate systems with uncertain dynamics using a stochastic differential equation. Specifically, we discuss the approximation that replaces a model with fixed but…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-12 Thomas Lew , Apoorva Sharma , James Harrison , Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

Classical deterministic optimal control problems assume full information about the controlled process. The theory of control for general partially-observable processes is powerful, but the methods are computationally expensive and typically…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-02 Dongping Qi , Adam Dhillon , Alexander Vladimirsky

This paper addresses the problem of planning a safe (i.e., collision-free) trajectory from an initial state to a goal region when the obstacle space is a-priori unknown and is incrementally revealed online, e.g., through line-of-sight…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-04-17 Lucas Janson , Tommy Hu , Marco Pavone

This paper studies a nonlinear filtering problem over an infinite time interval. The signal to be estimated is driven by a stochastic partial differential equation involves unknown parameters. Based on discrete observation, strongly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-12 Qizhu Liang , Jie Xiong , Xingqiu Zhao

Production systems deteriorate stochastically due to usage and may eventually break down, resulting in high maintenance costs at scheduled maintenance moments. This deterioration behavior is affected by the system's production rate. While…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-07 Collin Drent , Melvin Drent , Joachim Arts

Climate-economic modeling under uncertainty presents significant computational challenges that may limit policymakers' ability to address climate change effectively. This paper explores neural network-based approaches for solving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo , Louis Daumas , Leonardo Chiani , Massimo Tavoni

We study decision timing problems on finite horizon with Poissonian information arrivals. In our model, a decision maker wishes to optimally time her action in order to maximize her expected reward. The reward depends on an unobservable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-05-07 Michael Ludkovski , Semih Sezer

We address the problem where a mobile search agent seeks to find an unknown number of stationary objects distributed in a bounded search domain, and the search mission is subject to time/distance constraint. Our work accounts for false…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-06-26 Harun Yetkin , Collin Lutz , Daniel Stilwell

We study driver's optimal trajectory planning under uncertainty in the duration of a traffic light's green phase. We interpret this as an optimal control problem with an objective of minimizing the expected cost based on the fuel use,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-13 Mallory E. Gaspard , Alexander Vladimirsky

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…

General Economics · Economics 2020-10-20 Yongyang Cai

A perfectly rational decision-maker chooses the best action with the highest utility gain from a set of possible actions. The optimality principles that describe such decision processes do not take into account the computational costs of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-12-25 Jordi Grau-Moya , Daniel A. Braun

Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-10-01 Alan Veliz-Cuba , Zachary P. Kilpatrick , Kresimir Josic

We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-03 Steve N'Guyen , Clément Moulin-Frier , Jacques Droulez

Optimization under uncertainty deals with the problem of optimizing stochastic cost functions given some partial information on their inputs. These problems are extremely difficult to solve and yet pervade all areas of technological and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-13 Fabrizio Altarelli , Alfredo Braunstein , Abolfazl Ramezanpour , Riccardo Zecchina

Non-smooth dynamics driven by stochastic disturbance arise in a wide variety of engineering problems. Impulsive interventions are often employed to control stochastic systems; however, the modeling and analysis subject to execution delay…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Hidekazu Yoshioka , Yuta Yaegashi