Related papers: Prediction under interventions: evaluation of coun…

Predicting future outcomes is a prevalent application of machine learning in social impact domains. Examples range from predicting student success in education to predicting disease risk in healthcare. Practitioners recognize that the…

When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…

In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Prescriptive process monitoring approaches leverage historical data to prescribe runtime interventions that will likely prevent negative case outcomes or improve a process's performance. A centerpiece of a prescriptive process monitoring…

In the context of medical decision making, counterfactual prediction enables clinicians to predict treatment outcomes of interest under alternative courses of therapeutic actions given observed patient history. In this work, we present…

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Evaluation of intervention in a multiagent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields.…

Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time.…

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Clinical researchers often select among and evaluate risk prediction models using standard machine learning metrics based on confusion matrices. However, if these models are used to allocate interventions to patients, standard metrics…

Investigators often evaluate treatment effects by considering settings in which all individuals are assigned a treatment of interest, assuming that an unlimited number of treatment units are available. However, many real-life treatments are…

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Often in follow-up studies intermediate events occur in some patients, such as reinterventions or adverse events. These intermediate events directly affect the shapes of their longitudinal profiles. Our work is motivated by two studies in…