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The third Bitcoin halving that took place in May 2020 cut down the mining reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block and thus slowed down the rate of issuance of new Bitcoins, making it more scarce. The fourth and most recent halving happened…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-11 Vladislav Virtonen

This letter revisits the informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market. In particular we analyze the time-varying behavior of long memory of returns on Bitcoin and volatility 2011 until 2017, using the Hurst exponent. Our results are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-26 Aurelio F. Bariviera

We construct and study the Google matrix of Bitcoin transactions during the time period from the very beginning in 2009 till April 2013. The Bitcoin network has up to a few millions of bitcoin users and we present its main characteristics…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-06-29 Leonardo Ermann , Klaus M. Frahm , Dima L. Shepelyansky

In this paper, we analyze the time-series of minute price returns on the Bitcoin market through the statistical models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family. Several mathematical models have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-01 Irena Barjašić , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

The open availability of the entire history of the Bitcoin transactions opens up the possibility to study this system at an unprecedented level of detail. This contribution is devoted to the analysis of the mesoscale structural properties…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-01 Nicolò Vallarano , Tiziano Squartini , Claudio J. Tessone

Cryptocurrencies are a type of digital money meant to provide security and anonymity while using cryptography techniques. Although cryptocurrencies represent a breakthrough and provide some important benefits, their usage poses some risks…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-22 Ana Fernández Vilas , Rebeca P. Díaz Redondo , Daniel Couto Cancela , Alejandro Torrado Pazos

Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that has rapidly grown in popularity in recent years. Usually, the complete history of Bitcoin blockchain data must be queried to acquire variables with economic meaning. This task has…

General Economics · Economics 2025-08-11 Yulin Liu , Luyao Zhang , Yinhong Zhao

Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-30 Ladislav Kristoufek

This research proposes a model for the intraday variation between the ETHBTC spot and the quotient of ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT traded on Binance. Under conditions of no-arbitrage, perfect accuracy and no microstructure effects, the variation…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-06 Sidharth Mallik

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Pavel Ciaian , d'Artis Kancs , Miroslava Rajcaniova

This paper investigates the temporal patterns of activity in the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and WINkLink from January 2020 to December 2022. Market activity measures - logarithmic returns, volume, and…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-22 Marcin Wątorek , Maria Skupień , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

Bitcoin constructs temporal order internally rather than synchronizing to any external clock. Empirical evidence shows that its time evolution is non-continuous, probabilistic, and self-regulated. Block discovery follows a stochastic…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Bin Chen

This paper studies the dynamic market linkages among cryptocurrencies during August 2015 - July 2020 and finds a substantial increase in market linkages for both returns and volatilities. We use different methodologies to check the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-01 Nektarios Aslanidis , Aurelio F. Bariviera , Alejandro Perez-Laborda

In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-22 Min Shu , Wei Zhu

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-08-11 David Garcia , Claudio Juan Tessone , Pavlin Mavrodiev , Nicolas Perony

We study the temporal evolution of the holding-time distribution of bitcoins and find that the average distribution of holding-time is a heavy-tailed power law extending from one day to over at least $200$ weeks with an exponent…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-10 Didier Sornette , Yu Zhang

Tether Limited has the sole authority to create (mint) and destroy (burn) Tether stablecoins (USDT). This paper investigates Bitcoin's response to USDT supply change events between 2014 and 2021 and identifies an interesting asymmetry…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-10 Aman Saggu

Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-07 M. Eren Akbiyik , Mert Erkul , Killian Kaempf , Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yeguang Chi , Qionghua , Chu , Wenyan Hao

Cryptocurrency, the most controversial and simultaneously the most interesting asset, has attracted many investors and speculators in recent years. The visibly significant market capitalization of cryptos also motivates modern financial…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-10 Junjie Hu , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Weiyu Kuo