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Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

Neural network approaches for meta-learning distributions over functions have desirable properties such as increased flexibility and a reduced complexity of inference. Building on the successes of denoising diffusion models for generative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Vincent Dutordoir , Alan Saul , Zoubin Ghahramani , Fergus Simpson

Neural Processes (NPs) (Garnelo et al 2018a;b) approach regression by learning to map a context set of observed input-output pairs to a distribution over regression functions. Each function models the distribution of the output given an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-10 Hyunjik Kim , Andriy Mnih , Jonathan Schwarz , Marta Garnelo , Ali Eslami , Dan Rosenbaum , Oriol Vinyals , Yee Whye Teh

The Conditional Neural Process (CNP) family of models offer a promising direction to tackle few-shot problems by achieving better scalability and competitive predictive performance. However, the current CNP models only capture the overall…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Deep Shankar Pandey , Qi Yu

Uncertainty estimation is an important research area to make deep neural networks (DNNs) more trustworthy. While extensive research on uncertainty estimation has been conducted with unimodal data, uncertainty estimation for multimodal data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Myong Chol Jung , He Zhao , Joanna Dipnall , Lan Du

Neural processes are a family of probabilistic models that inherit the flexibility of neural networks to parameterize stochastic processes. Despite providing well-calibrated predictions, especially in regression problems, and quick…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Peiman Mohseni , Nick Duffield , Bani Mallick , Arman Hasanzadeh

Normative modeling has recently been introduced as a promising approach for modeling variation of neuroimaging measures across individuals in order to derive biomarkers of psychiatric disorders. Current implementations rely on Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Seyed Mostafa Kia , Andre F. Marquand

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Conditional Neural Processes (CNP; Garnelo et al., 2018) are an attractive family of meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions, enable fast inference at test time, and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Stratis Markou , James Requeima , Wessel Bruinsma , Richard Turner

Neural Processes (NPs) are meta-learning models that learn to map sets of observations to approximations of the corresponding posterior predictive distributions. By accommodating variable-sized, unstructured collections of observations and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Peiman Mohseni , Nick Duffield

We extend Neural Processes (NPs) to sequential data through Recurrent NPs or RNPs, a family of conditional state space models. RNPs model the state space with Neural Processes. Given time series observed on fast real-world time scales but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-07 Timon Willi , Jonathan Masci , Jürgen Schmidhuber , Christian Osendorfer

We introduce the implicit processes (IPs), a stochastic process that places implicitly defined multivariate distributions over any finite collections of random variables. IPs are therefore highly flexible implicit priors over functions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-29 Chao Ma , Yingzhen Li , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We introduce Markov Neural Processes (MNPs), a new class of Stochastic Processes (SPs) which are constructed by stacking sequences of neural parameterised Markov transition operators in function space. We prove that these Markov transition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-26 Jin Xu , Emilien Dupont , Kaspar Märtens , Tom Rainforth , Yee Whye Teh

Representing a signal as a continuous function parameterized by neural network (a.k.a. Implicit Neural Representations, INRs) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Neural Processes (NPs), which model the distributions over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Zongyu Guo , Cuiling Lan , Zhizheng Zhang , Yan Lu , Zhibo Chen

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Patrick Seifner , Ramses J. Sanchez

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , YoonYeong Kim , Yongjin Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 David Tolpin

Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, and in situations where conducting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-20 David T. Frazier , Ryan Kelly , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Warne