Related papers: Second Order Markov multistate models

Markov state models (MSMs) have been broadly adopted for analyzing molecular dynamics trajectories, but the approximate nature of the models that results from coarse-graining into discrete states is a long-known limitation. We show…

We introduce a restricted latent class exploratory model for longitudinal data with ordinal attributes and respondent-specific covariates. Responses follow a time inhomogeneous hidden Markov model where the probability of a respondent's…

Experiments, in particular on biological systems, typically probe lower-dimensional observables which are projections of high-dimensional dynamics. In order to infer consistent models capturing the relevant dynamics of the system, it is…

In the last decade, advances in molecular dynamics (MD) and Markov State Model (MSM) methodologies have made possible accurate and efficient estimation of kinetic rates and reactive pathways for complex biomolecular dynamics occurring on…

This paper presents a model for COVID19 in Mexico City. The data analyzed were considered from the appearance of the first case in Mexico until July 2021. In this first approximation the states considered were Susceptible, Infected,…

Mutating variants of COVID-19 have been reported across many US states since 2021. In the fight against COVID-19, it has become imperative to study the heterogeneity in the time-varying transmission rates for each variant in the presence of…

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small…

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

This paper develops a new class of conditional Markov jump processes with regime switching and paths dependence. The key novel feature of the developed process lies on its ability to switch the transition rate as it moves from one state to…

State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

In a real-life setting, little is known regarding the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention among older adults, and analysis of observational data can add crucial information on the benefits of actual patterns of use. Latent class…

In this work, we focus on the stationary analysis of a specific class of continuous time Markov-modulated reflected random walks in the quarter plane with applications in the modelling of two-node Markov-modulated queueing networks with…

We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…

Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…

We present and explore a general method for deriving a Lie-Markov model from a finite semigroup. If the degree of the semigroup is $k$, the resulting model is a continuous-time Markov chain on $k$ states and, as a consequence of the product…

We consider a class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes where the state evolves according to a linear dynamical system. This continuous time evolution is interspersed by discrete events that occur at random times and change (reset)…

Clinical measurements, such as body temperature, are often collected over time to monitor an individual's underlying health condition. These measurements exhibit complex temporal dynamics, necessitating sophisticated statistical models to…

Matrix-product states have become the de facto standard for the representation of one-dimensional quantum many body states. During the last few years, numerous new methods have been introduced to evaluate the time evolution of a…