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We propose a test to detect a forecast accuracy breakdown in a long memory time series and provide theoretical and simulation evidence on the memory transfer from the time series to the forecast residuals. The proposed method uses a double…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-12 Jannik Kreye , Philipp Sibbertsen

Concerning machine learning, segmentation models can identify state changes within time series, facilitating the detection of transitions between normal and anomalous conditions. Specific techniques such as Change Point Detection (CPD),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Emilio Mastriani , Alessandro Costa , Federico Incardona , Kevin Munari , Sebastiano Spinello

In recent years, change point detection for high dimensional data has become increasingly important in many scientific fields. Most literature develop a variety of separate methods designed for specified models (e.g. mean shift model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Yue Bai , Abolfazl Safikhani

The field of causal discovery develops model selection methods to infer cause-effect relations among a set of random variables. For this purpose, different modelling assumptions have been proposed to render cause-effect relations…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-09 Daniela Schkoda , Mathias Drton

In this paper, we focus on exploiting the group structure for large-dimensional factor models, which captures the homogeneous effects of common factors on individuals within the same group. In view of the fact that datasets in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Yong He , Xiaoyang Ma , Xingheng Wang , Yalin Wang

One of the most important empirical findings in microeconometrics is the pervasiveness of heterogeneity in economic behaviour (cf. Heckman 2001). This paper shows that cumulative distribution functions and quantiles of the nonparametric…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-19 Juan Carlos Escanciano

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron

In this paper, we investigate score function-based tests to check the significance of an ultrahigh-dimensional sub-vector of the model coefficients when the nuisance parameter vector is also ultrahigh-dimensional in linear models. We first…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Weichao Yang , Xu Guo , Lixing Zhu

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Shixiang Zhu

This paper applies the functional sieve bootstrap (FSB) to estimate the distribution of the partial sum process for time series stemming from a weakly stationary functional process. Consistency of the FSB procedure under weak assumptions on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Efstathios Paparoditis , Lea Wegner , Martin Wendler

We formulate a novel technique for the detection of functional clusters in discrete event data. The advantage of this algorithm is that no prior knowledge of the number of functional groups is needed, as our procedure progressively combines…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-13 S. Feldt , J. Waddell , V. L. Hetrick , J. D. Berke , M. Zochowski

In modern business modeling and analytics, data monitoring plays a critical role. Nowadays, sophisticated models often rely on hundreds or even thousands of input variables. Over time, structural changes such as abrupt level shifts or trend…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-07 Yingbo Li , Robert Cezeaux , Di Yu

A vector-valued model-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedure is proposed for identifying faulty/falsified sensor measurements. First, given the system dynamics, we derive tools for tuning the CUSUM procedure in the fault/attack free case to…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-13 Carlos Murguia , Justin Ruths

We propose a new nonparametric procedure for the detection and estimation of multiple structural breaks in the autocovariance function of a multivariate (second- order) piecewise stationary process, which also identifies the components of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-06 Philip Preuß , Ruprecht Puchstein , Holger Dette

Distributed change-point detection has been a fundamental problem when performing real-time monitoring using sensor-networks. We propose a distributed detection algorithm, where each sensor only exchanges CUSUM statistic with their…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-01-09 Qinghua Liu , Rui Zhang , Yao Xie

In a wide range of modern applications, we observe a large number of time series rather than only a single one. It is often natural to suppose that there is some group structure in the observed time series. When each time series is modelled…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Michael Vogt , Oliver Linton

This paper considers the problem of estimating an unknown high dimensional signal from noisy linear measurements, {when} the signal is assumed to possess a \emph{group-sparse} structure in a {known,} fixed dictionary. We consider signals…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Mojtaba Kadkhodaie Elyaderani , Swayambhoo Jain , Jeffrey Druce , Stefano Gonella , Jarvis Haupt

In several environmental applications data are functions of time, essentially con- tinuous, observed and recorded discretely, and spatially correlated. Most of the methods for analyzing such data are extensions of spatial statistical tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-28 Elvira Romano , Antonio Balzanella , Rosanna Verde

Cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics are widely used in the change point inference and identification. For the problem of testing for existence of a change point in an independent sample generated from the mean-shift model, we introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Mengjia Yu , Xiaohui Chen

Statisticians increasingly face the problem to reconsider the adaptability of classical inference techniques. In particular, divers types of high-dimensional data structures are observed in various research areas; disclosing the boundaries…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-09 Paavo Sattler , Markus Pauly
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