Related papers: Time-varying STARMA models by wavelets
The identification and modeling of time-varying systems is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and system identification. To address this challenge, we propose a class of time-varying state-space model (SSM) based neural networks…
Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…
This paper investigates locally linear regression for locally stationary time series and develops theoretical results for locally linear smoothing and transfer learning. Existing analyses have focused on local constant estimators and given…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting…
In this paper we discuss dynamic ARMA-type regression models for time series taking values in $(0,\infty)$. In the proposed model, the conditional mean is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms,…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…
I present an approach for modeling areal spatial covariance by considering the stationary distribution of a spatio-temporal Markov random walk. In the areal data case, this stationary distribution corresponds to an intrinsic simultaneous…
This study delves into the domain of dynamical systems, specifically the forecasting of dynamical time series defined through an evolution function. Traditional approaches in this area predict the future behavior of dynamical systems by…
Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…
The class of multivariate L\'{e}vy-driven autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) processes, the continuous-time analogs of the classical vector ARMA processes, is shown to be equivalent to the class of continuous-time state space models.…
We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each…
We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…
This work presents a generalized physical interpretation of unconventional dispersion asymmetries associated moving elastic solids. By shifting the notion from systems with time-variant material fields to physically traveling materials, the…
In this paper, we develop a time-varying parameter based seasonally-adjusted Bayesian state-space model for non-stationary time series datasets where both the trend and seasonal components are present and it is the general scenario for most…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…