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Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Predictive uncertainty estimation of pre-trained language models is an important measure of how likely people can trust their predictions. However, little is known about what makes a model prediction uncertain. Explaining predictive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Hanjie Chen , Wanyu Du , Yangfeng Ji

Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Chenrui Zhu , Louenas Bounia , Vu Linh Nguyen , Sébastien Destercke , Arthur Hoarau

In the context of industrially mass-manufactured products, quality management is based on physically inspecting a small sample from a large batch and reasoning about the batch's quality conformance. When complementing physical inspections…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-22 Simon Cramer , Tobias Müller , Robert H. Schmitt

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In practice, new input data tend to come without target labels. Then, state-of-the-art techniques model input data distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Carlos Mougan , Klaus Broelemann , David Masip , Gjergji Kasneci , Thanassis Thiropanis , Steffen Staab

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-21 Alex Goldstein , Adam Kapelner , Justin Bleich , Emil Pitkin

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger

This paper addresses the unique challenges associated with uncertainty quantification in AI models when applied to patient-facing contexts within healthcare. Unlike traditional eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods tailored for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Adarsa Sivaprasad , Ehud Reiter

Model explanations can be valuable for interpreting and debugging predictive models. We study a specific kind called Concept Explanations, where the goal is to interpret a model using human-understandable concepts. Although popular for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Vihari Piratla , Juyeon Heo , Katherine M. Collins , Sukriti Singh , Adrian Weller

We present a randomized controlled trial for a model-in-the-loop regression task, with the goal of measuring the extent to which (1) good explanations of model predictions increase human accuracy, and (2) faulty explanations decrease human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-27 Eric Chu , Deb Roy , Jacob Andreas

Declarative approaches to process modeling are regarded as well suited for highly volatile environments as they provide a high degree of flexibility. However, problems in understanding and maintaining declarative business process models…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2015-11-12 Cornelia Haisjackl , Stefan Zugal , Pnina Soffer , Irit Hadar , Manfred Reichert , Jakob Pinggera , Barbara Weber

This text discusses several popular explanatory methods that go beyond the error measurements and plots traditionally used to assess machine learning models. Some of the explanatory methods are accepted tools of the trade while others are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-02 Patrick Hall

Variable importance, interaction measures, and partial dependence plots are important summaries in the interpretation of statistical and machine learning models. In this paper we describe new visualization techniques for exploring these…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-12 Alan Inglis , Andrew Parnell , Catherine Hurley

Interpretability, trustworthiness, and usability are key considerations in high-stake security applications, especially when utilizing deep learning models. While these models are known for their high accuracy, they behave as black boxes in…

The wide-spread adoption of representation learning technologies in clinical decision making strongly emphasizes the need for characterizing model reliability and enabling rigorous introspection of model behavior. While the former need is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Prasanna Sattigeri , Deepta Rajan , Bindya Venkatesh

Development of new machine learning models is typically done on manually curated data sets, making them unsuitable for evaluating the models' performance during operations, where the evaluation needs to be performed automatically on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-15 Awalin Sopan , Konstantin Berlin

Human-in-the-loop data analysis applications necessitate greater transparency in machine learning models for experts to understand and trust their decisions. To this end, we propose a visual analytics workflow to help data scientists and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-03 Josua Krause , Aritra Dasgupta , Jordan Swartz , Yindalon Aphinyanaphongs , Enrico Bertini

A very common task in data visualization is to plot many data points with some measured y-value as a function of fixed x-values. Uncertainties on the y-values are typically presented as vertical error bars that represent either a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Lukas Koch

Despite the popularisation of machine learning models, more often than not, they still operate as black boxes with no insight into what is happening inside the model. There exist a few methods that allow to visualise and explain why a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Błażej Leporowski , Alexandros Iosifidis