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We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Yi Li , David Mccoy , Nolan Gunter , Kaitlyn Lee , Alejandro Schuler , Mark van der Laan

Subgroup analyses within randomized controlled trials are often underpowered due to limited sample sizes. We address this challenge by leveraging trial participants outside the subgroup of interest to augment estimation within the subgroup.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Sky Qiu , Nerissa Nance , Rachael Phillips , Jens Tarp , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-02 Matthew Edwards , Stefano Castruccio , Dorit Hammerling

Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

In animal behavior studies, a common goal is to investigate the causal pathways between an exposure and outcome, and a mediator that lies in between. Causal mediation analysis provides a principled approach for such studies. Although many…

Causal models are important tools to understand complex phenomena and predict the outcome of controlled experiments, also known as interventions. In this work, we present statistical rates of estimation for linear cyclic causal models under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Jan-Christian Hütter , Philippe Rigollet

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser

Routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) provide opportunities to study effects of longitudinal treatment strategies in real-world clinical settings. A challenge presented by EHR data is that frequency of covariate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-14 Leah Pirondini , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Edward Palmer , Ruth H. Keogh

In certain privacy-sensitive scenarios within fields such as clinical trial simulations, federated learning, and distributed learning, researchers often face the challenge of estimating correlations between variables without access to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Longwen Shang , Min Tsao , Xuekui Zhang

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is complicated by the presence of multiple mediators, intracluster correlation, and within-cluster interference. Existing mediation methods often fall short in accommodating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiaqi Tong , Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Simulating longitudinal data from specified marginal structural models is a crucial but challenging task for evaluating causal inference methods and informing study design. While data generation typically proceeds in a fully conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Xi Lin , Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Chase Mathis , Jens Magelund Tarp , Robin J. Evans

In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive empirical likelihood-based approach for treatment effect estimation and inference, which overcomes the obstacle of the traditional empirical likelihood-based approaches in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Wei Liang , Ying Yan

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

The primary objective of this scholarly work is to develop two estimation procedures - maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) - for the mean and variance of lognormal insurance payment severity data sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Chudamani Poudyal

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Jeongseop Han , Youngjo Lee

Estimating the impact of trauma treatment protocols is complicated by the high dimensional yet finite sample nature of trauma data collected from observational studies. Viscoelastic assays are highly predictive measures of hemostasis.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-27 Linqing Wei , Lucy Z. Kornblith , Alan Hubbard

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Amrith Setlur , Barnabás Póczós