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We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux

We study epidemic models where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the infection age (the elapsed time of infection). To describe the epidemic evolution dynamics, we use a stochastic process that tracks the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Hélène Guérin , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Raphael Forien , Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-29 Åke Svensson

We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-21 Juan G. Calvo , Mario I. Simoy , Juan P. Aparicio , José E. Chacón , Fabio Sanchez

A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-06-28 Christoph Walker

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Tom Britton , Theodore Kypraios , Philip O'Neill

We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-28 Tânia Tomé , Mário J. de Oliveira

We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…

Biological Physics · Physics 2020-12-25 Tânia Tomé , Mário J. de Oliveira

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-11-23 N. Sherborne , K. B. Blyuss , I. Z. Kiss

In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Luis Sanz-Lorenzo , Rafael Bravo de la Parra

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-11-11 Vasiliy Leonenko

We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording…

The propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-24 Juan G. Calvo , Alberto Hernández , Mason A. Porter , Fabio Sanchez

Here, we consider an SIS epidemic model where the individuals are distributed on several distinct patches. We construct a stochastic model and then prove that it converges to a deterministic model as the total population size tends to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-16 T. Yeo
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