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Two Cox-based multistate modeling approaches are compared for analyzing a complex multicohort event history process. The first approach incorporates cohort information as a fixed covariate, thereby providing a direct estimation of the…

Competing risk models are survival models with several events of interest acting in competition and whose occurrence is only observed for the event that occurs first in time. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to these models in which…

We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Munir Hiabu , Emil Hofman , Gabriele Pittarello

Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2016-03-29 Maochao Xu , Gaofeng Da , Shouhuai Xu

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Ali Hossein Gharari Foomani , Michael Cooper , Russell Greiner , Rahul G. Krishnan

In the analysis of survival data, it is usually assumed that any unit will experience the event of interest if it is observed for a sufficient long time. However, one can explicitly assume that an unknown proportion of the population under…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-15 Vincent Bremhorst , Philippe Lambert

Many time-to-event studies are complicated by the presence of competing risks. Such data are often analyzed using Cox models for the cause specific hazard function or Fine-Gray models for the subdistribution hazard. In practice regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-02 Rodney Sparapani , Brent R. Logan , Robert E. McCulloch , Purushottam W. Laud

Copula modelling has in the past decade become a standard tool in many areas of applied statistics. However, a largely neglected aspect concerns the design of related experiments. Particularly the issue of whether the estimation of copula…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-12 Elisa Perrone , Werner G. Müller

Parametric factor copula models typically work well in modeling multivariate dependencies due to their flexibility and ability to capture complex dependency structures. However, accurately estimating the linking copulas within these models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Bahareh Ghanbari , Pavel Krupskiy , Laleh Tafakori , Yan Wang

Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-24 Simon Fritzsch , Maike Timphus , Gregor Weiss

Since survival data occur over time, often important covariates that we wish to consider also change over time. Such covariates are referred as time-dependent covariates. Quantile regression offers flexible modeling of survival data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-01 Malka Gorfine , Yair Goldberg , Yaacov Ritov

This article considers the joint modeling of longitudinal covariates and partly-interval censored time-to-event data. Longitudinal time-varying covariates play a crucial role in obtaining accurate clinically relevant predictions using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-05 Annabel Webb , Nan Zou , Serigne Lo , Jun Ma

With known cause of death (CoD), competing risk survival methods are applicable in estimating disease-specific survival. Relative survival analysis may be used to estimate disease-specific survival when cause of death is either unknown or…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Reuben Adatorwovor , Aurelien Latouche , Jason P. Fine

In confirmatory clinical trials, survival outcomes are frequently studied and interim analyses for efficacy and/or futility are often desirable. Methods such as the log rank test and Cox regression model are commonly used to compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-27 Peter Zhang , Brent Logan , Michael Martens

The quantile residual lifetime (QRL) regression is an attractive tool for assessing covariate effects on the distribution of residual life expectancy, which is often of interest in clinical studies. When the study subjects are exposed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Tonghui Yu , Liming Xiang , Jong-Hyeon Jeong

We propose vine copula-based classifiers for probabilistic risk prediction in perioperative settings. We obtain full joint probability models for mixed continuous-ordinal variables by fitting a separate vine copula to each outcome class,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Özge Şahin

This work presents a new model and estimation procedure for the illness-death survival data where the hazard functions follow accelerated failure time (AFT) models. A shared frailty variate induces positive dependence among failure times of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Lea Kats , Malka Gorfine

In this paper, we propose simple estimation methods dedicated to a semiparametric family of bivariate copulas. These copulas can be simply estimated through the estimation of their univariate generating function. We take profit of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-04-04 Cécile Amblard , Stéphane Girard

Predicting patient survival probabilities based on observed covariates is an important assessment in clinical practice. These patient-specific covariates are often measured over multiple follow-up appointments. It is then of interest to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-11 Annabel L. Davies , Anthony C. C. Coolen , Tobias Galla