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Empirical studies indicate the existence of long range dependence in the volatility of the underlying asset. This feature can be captured by modeling its return and volatility using functions of a stationary fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-12 Jean-Pierre Fouque , Ruimeng Hu

In this paper, we follow in the footsteps of Onsager and Machlup (OM) and consider diffusion-like paths that are explored by a particle moving via a conservative force while being in thermal equilibrium with its surroundings. Instead of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-04-03 P. J. Malsom , F. J. Pinski

With recently developed tools, we prove a homogenisation theorem for a random ODE with short and long-range dependent fractional noise. The effective dynamics are not necessarily diffusions, they are given by stochastic differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Johann Gehringer , Xue-Mei Li

We consider the problem of statistical inference for a class of partially-observed diffusion processes, with discretely-observed data and finite-dimensional parameters. We construct unbiased estimators of the score function, i.e. the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-12 Jeremy Heng , Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra

Scene flow estimation is an essential ingredient for a variety of real-world applications, especially for autonomous agents, such as self-driving cars and robots. While recent scene flow estimation approaches achieve a reasonable accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Yushan Zhang , Bastian Wandt , Maria Magnusson , Michael Felsberg

We study the problem of unbiased estimation of expectations with respect to (w.r.t.) $\pi$ a given, general probability measure on $(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d))$ that is absolutely continuous with respect to a standard Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-26 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Stochastic transport due to a velocity field modeled by the superposition of small-scale divergence free vector fields activated by Fractional Gaussian Noises (FGN) is numerically investigated. We present two non-trivial contributions: the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-12 Paolo Cifani , Franco Flandoli

In this article we consider the estimation of static parameters for partially observed diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, when one only has access to time-discretized solutions of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Miguel Alvarez , Ajay Jasra

The emergence of transition phenomena between metastable states induced by noise plays a fundamental role in a broad range of nonlinear systems. The computation of the most probable paths is a key issue to understand the mechanism of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Yang Li , Jinqiao Duan , Xianbin Liu

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Whereas diverse variations of diffusion models exist, extending the linear diffusion into a nonlinear diffusion process is investigated by very few works. The nonlinearity effect has been hardly understood, but intuitively, there would be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Dongjun Kim , Byeonghu Na , Se Jung Kwon , Dongsoo Lee , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Raghav Singhal , Mark Goldstein , Rajesh Ranganath

We investigate a generalized tomographic imaging framework applicable to a class of inhomogeneous media characterized by non-local diffusive energy transport. Under these conditions, the transport mechanism is well described by…

Applied Physics · Physics 2018-04-20 Salvatore Buonocore , Fabio Semperlotti

In this article we consider a Monte Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-12 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Fangyuan Yu

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-22 Antoine Lejay , Paolo Pigato

The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich

Fractional-order vortex beams possess fractional orbital angular momentum (FOAM) modes, which theoretically have the potential to increase transmission capacity infinitely. Therefore, they have significant application prospects in the…

Optics · Physics 2025-10-24 Yan Guo , Heng Lyu , Chunling Ding , Chenzhi Yuan , Ruibo Jin

The smoothing distribution is the conditional distribution of the diffusion process in the space of trajectories given noisy observations made continuously in time. It is generally difficult to sample from this distribution. We use the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-07 Oskar Eklund , Annika Lang , Moritz Schauer

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , Carl Edward Rasmussen

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl