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The paper addresses the problem of finding the causal direction between two associated variables. The proposed solution is to build an autoencoder of their joint distribution and to maximize its estimation capacity relative to both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Matthias Feiler

Estimating the causal effects of an intervention in the presence of confounding is a frequently occurring problem in applications such as medicine. The task is challenging since there may be multiple confounding factors, some of which may…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-28 Sonali Parbhoo , Mario Wieser , Volker Roth

Probabilities of causation (PoC) offer valuable insights for informed decision-making. This paper introduces novel variants of PoC-controlled direct, natural direct, and natural indirect probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). These…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

Artificial intelligence models and methods commonly lack causal interpretability. Despite the advancements in interpretable machine learning (IML) methods, they frequently assign importance to features which lack causal influence on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Francisco Nunes Ferreira Quialheiro Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

Investigating fairness and equity of automated systems has become a critical field of inquiry. Most of the literature in fair machine learning focuses on defining and achieving fairness criteria in the context of prediction, while not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 Drago Plecko , Elias Bareinboim

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Liye Jia , Fengyufan Yang , Ka Lok Man , Erick Purwanto , Sheng-Uei Guan , Jeremy Smith , Yutao Yue

Recent developments enable the quantification of causal control given a structural causal model (SCM). This has been accomplished by introducing quantities which encode changes in the entropy of one variable when intervening on another.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-11 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

Causal parameters may not be point identified in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, information about non-identified parameters, in the form of bounds, may still be recovered from the observed data in some cases. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Noam Finkelstein , Ilya Shpitser

An individual has been subjected to some exposure and has developed some outcome. Using data on similar individuals, we wish to evaluate, for this case, the probability that the outcome was in fact caused by the exposure. Even with the best…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-16 Rossella Murtas , Alexander Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Coupling probability measures lies at the core of many problems in statistics and machine learning, from domain adaptation to transfer learning and causal inference. Yet, even when restricted to deterministic transports, such couplings are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-22 Lucas De Lara , Luca Ganassali

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

For sensitivity analysis against unmeasured confounding, we build on the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and propose a new model, deMSM, by incorporating a second constraint on the shift of potential outcome distributions caused by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-21 Yi Zhang , Wenfu Xu , Zhiqiang Tan

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

We derive two related novel bounds on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The first method propagates bounds over a subtree of the factor graph rooted in the variable, and the second…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-01-25 Joris M. Mooij , Hilbert J. Kappen

In the absence of randomized controlled and natural experiments, it is necessary to balance the distributions of (observable) covariates of the treated and control groups in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of a causal effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-02 Martin Cousineau , Vedat Verter , Susan A. Murphy , Joelle Pineau

Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-08-31 Francesco Bonchi , Francesco Gullo , Bud Mishra , Daniele Ramazzotti

Knowledge about existence, strength, and dominant direction of causal influences is of paramount importance for understanding complex systems. With limited amounts of realistic data, however, current methods for investigating causal links…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-20 Erik Laminski , Klaus R. Pawelzik