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This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

We introduce a general framework for testing temporal symmetries in time series based on the distribution of ordinal patterns. While previous approaches have focused on specific forms of asymmetry, such as time reversal, our method provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Annika Betken , Giorgio Micali , Manuel Ruiz Marín

Detection and identification of nonlinearity is a task of high importance for structural dynamics. Detecting nonlinearity in a structure, which has been designed to operate in its linear region, might indicate the existence of damage.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 G. Tsialiamanis , C. R. Farrar

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

In many longitudinal microarray studies, the gene expression levels in a random sample are observed repeatedly over time under two or more conditions. The resulting time courses are generally very short, high-dimensional, and may have…

Applications · Statistics 2013-02-26 Maurice Berk , Cheryl Hemingway , Michael Levin , Giovanni Montana

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) possesses many desirable aspects, such as dismissing the need for hypotheses to have positive prior probability and providing a measure of evidence against $H_0$. Still, few attempts have been made…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Rodrigo F. L. Lassance , Julio M. Stern , Rafael B. Stern

When building linear or nonlinear models one is faced with the problem of selecting the best set of variable with which to predict the future dynamics. In nonlinear time series analysis the problem is to select the correct time delays in…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael Small

This paper proposes a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic and a Cram\'er-von Mises type statistic to test linearity in semi-functional partially linear regression models. Our test statistics are based on a residual marked empirical process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-02 Yongzhen Feng , Jie Li , Xiaojun Song

The problem of error density estimation for a functional single index model with dependent errors is studied. A Bayesian method is utilized to simultaneously estimate the bandwidths in the kernel-form error density and regression function,…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-23 Han Lin Shang

Irregular multivariate time series with missing values present significant challenges for predictive modeling in domains such as healthcare. While deep learning approaches often focus on temporal interpolation or complex architectures to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Dingyi Nie , Yixing Wu , C. -C. Jay Kuo

The paper introduces a general framework for statistical analysis of functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. The proposed approach, based on an extension of the popular dynamic linear model to Banach-space valued observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-02 Giovanni Petris

Many scientific and engineering applications require fitting regression models that are nonlinear in the parameters. Advances in computer hardware and software in recent decades have made it easier to fit such models. Relative to fitting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Peng Liu , William Q. Meeker

In this paper, we consider multivariate functional time series with a two-way dependence structure: a serial dependence across time points and a graphical interaction among the multiple functions within each time point. We develop the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Jianbin Tan , Decai Liang , Yongtao Guan , Hui Huang

Multivariate time series analysis is extensively used in neurophysiology with the aim of studying the relationship between simultaneously recorded signals. Recently, advances on information theory and nonlinear dynamical systems theory have…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Ernesto Pereda , Rodrigo Quian Quiroga , Joydeep Bhattacharya

A variable screening procedure via correlation learning was proposed Fan and Lv (2008) to reduce dimensionality in sparse ultra-high dimensional models. Even when the true model is linear, the marginal regression can be highly nonlinear. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-19 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Rui Song

In this paper we develop methodology for testing relevant hypotheses about functional time series in a tuning-free way. Instead of testing for exact equality, for example for the equality of two mean functions from two independent time…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-21 Holger Dette , Kevin Kokot , Stanislav Volgushev

In recent years, manifold methods have moved into focus as tools for dimension reduction. Assuming that the high-dimensional data actually lie on or close to a low-dimensional nonlinear manifold, these methods have shown convincing results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Moritz Herrmann , Fabian Scheipl

In this work we deal with the problem of fitting an error density to the goodness-of-fit test of the errors in nonlinear autoregressive time series models with stationary $\alpha$-mixing error terms. The test statistic is based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-15 Kyong-Hui Kim , Myong-Guk Sin , Ok-Kyong Kim

Combined modeling and verification of dynamic systems and the data they operate on has gained momentum in AI and in several application domains. We investigate the expressive yet concise framework of data-aware dynamic systems (DDS),…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Paolo Felli , Marco Montali , Sarah Winkler