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In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-13 Daniel Elfverson , Robert Scheichl , Simon Weissmann , F. Alejandro DiazDelaO

A number of optimal decision problems with uncertainty can be formulated into a stochastic optimal control framework. The Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm is a popular numerical method to approach solutions of such stochastic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-23 Zhiyi Shen , Chengguo Weng

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

One common approach to solve multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) problems is to extend conventional Q-learning by using vector Q-values in combination with a utility function. However issues can arise with this approach in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Kewen Ding , Peter Vamplew , Cameron Foale , Richard Dazeley

This paper considers Importance Sampling (IS) for the estimation of tail risks of a loss defined in terms of a sophisticated object such as a machine learning feature map or a mixed integer linear optimisation formulation. Assuming only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-21 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

Bilevel optimization problems, which are problems where two optimization problems are nested, have more and more applications in machine learning. In many practical cases, the upper and the lower objectives correspond to empirical risk…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-03 Mathieu Dagréou , Thomas Moreau , Samuel Vaiter , Pierre Ablin

In this paper, we mainly focus on the penalized maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the high-dimensional approximate factor model. Since the current estimation procedure can not guarantee the positive definiteness of the error covariance…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-18 Shaoxin Wang , Hu Yang , Chaoli Yao

Stochastic convex optimization problems with expectation constraints (SOECs) are encountered in statistics and machine learning, business, and engineering. In data-rich environments, the SOEC objective and constraints contain expectations…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-03 Qihang Lin , Selvaprabu Nadarajah , Negar Soheili , Tianbao Yang

Two-stage stochastic optimization is a framework for modeling uncertainty, where we have a probability distribution over possible realizations of the data, called scenarios, and decisions are taken in two stages: we make first-stage…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Andre Linhares , Chaitanya Swamy

We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-05-09 Jan Křetínský , Tobias Meggendorfer

In this paper, we develop a stochastic set-valued optimization (SVO) framework tailored for robust machine learning. In the SVO setting, each decision variable is mapped to a set of objective values, and optimality is defined via set…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Tommaso Giovannelli , Jingfu Tan , Luis Nunes Vicente

We study optimization for losses that admit a variance-mean scale-mixture representation. Under this representation, each EM iteration is a weighted least squares update in which latent variables determine observation and parameter weights;…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-17 Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

In this paper, we introduce a new stochastic approximation (SA) type algorithm, namely the randomized stochastic gradient (RSG) method, for solving an important class of nonlinear (possibly nonconvex) stochastic programming (SP) problems.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-10-27 Saeed Ghadimi , Guanghui Lan

Multivariate normal (MVN) probabilities arise in myriad applications, but they are analytically intractable and need to be evaluated via Monte-Carlo-based numerical integration. For the state-of-the-art minimax exponential tilting (MET)…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-28 Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most important risk measure in financial regulation. One of the most…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-16 Qiuqi Wang , Ruodu Wang , Johanna Ziegel

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

We propose and analyze a Multilevel Richardson-Romberg (MLRR) estimator which combines the higher order bias cancellation of the Multistep Richardson-Romberg method introduced in [Pa07] and the variance control resulting from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-12 Paul Embrechts , Alexander Schied , Ruodu Wang

Several classical adaptive optimization algorithms, such as line search and trust region methods, have been recently extended to stochastic settings where function values, gradients, and Hessians in some cases, are estimated via stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-02 Billy Jin , Katya Scheinberg , Miaolan Xie

Machine learning (ML) training algorithms often possess an inherent self-correcting behavior due to their iterative-convergent nature. Recent systems exploit this property to achieve adaptability and efficiency in unreliable computing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-18 Aurick Qiao , Bryon Aragam , Bingjing Zhang , Eric P. Xing