Related papers: A mixture transition distribution modeling for hig…
Finite order Markov models are theoretically well-studied models for dependent discrete data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work when the order is large is rare. Practitioners avoid using higher order Markov models…
Modeling the impact of the order flow on asset prices is of primary importance to understand the behavior of financial markets. Part I of this paper reported the remarkable improvements in the description of the price dynamics which can be…
We develop a mixture model for transition density approximation, together with soft model selection, in the presence of noisy and heterogeneous nonlinear dynamics. Our model builds on the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (MTD) model…
Modelling multivariate circular time series is considered. The cross-sectional and serial dependence is described by circulas, which are analogs of copulas for circular distributions. In order to obtain a simple expression of the dependence…
Modelling random dynamical systems in continuous time, diffusion processes are a powerful tool in many areas of science. Model parameters can be estimated from time-discretely observed processes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods…
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the…
We study the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in the context of critical transitions modelled by fast-slow stochastic dynamical systems. We establish a new link between the dynamical theory of critical transitions with the statistical aspects…
We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, i.e. circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
We study finite-time mixing in time-periodic open flow systems. We describe the transport of densities in terms of a transfer operator, which is represented by the transition matrix of a finite-state Markov chain. The transport processes in…
In the context of nonparametric Bayesian estimation a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised and implemented to sample from the posterior distribution of the drift function of a continuously or discretely observed one-dimensional…
In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…
In this work, we focus on the stationary analysis of a specific class of continuous time Markov-modulated reflected random walks in the quarter plane with applications in the modelling of two-node Markov-modulated queueing networks with…
We develop two models for Bayesian estimation and selection in high-order, discrete-state Markov chains. Both are based on the mixture transition distribution, which constructs a transition probability tensor with additive mixing of…
Accurate and efficient prediction of multicomponent adsorption equilibria across pressures, temperatures, and compositions remain a central challenge for designing energy-efficient adsorption-based separation processes. Traditional…
Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
We develop the theory of strong stationary duality for diffusion processes on compact intervals. We analytically derive the generator and boundary behavior of the dual process and recover a central tenet of the classical Markov chain theory…
We study in some generality intertwinings between $h$-transforms of Karlin-McGregor semigroups associated with one dimensional diffusion processes and those of their Siegmund duals. We obtain couplings so that the corresponding processes…
Understanding the dependencies among financial assets is critical for portfolio optimization. Traditional approaches based on correlation networks often fail to capture the nonlinear and directional relationships that exist in financial…