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The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Konstantin Hess , Yuchen Ma , Stefan Feuerriegel

The widespread availability of complex time series data in various domains such as environmental science, epidemiology, and economics demands robust causal discovery methods that can identify intricate contemporaneous and lagged…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Omar Faruque , Sahara Ali , Xue Zheng , Jianwu Wang

As longitudinal data becomes more available in many settings, policy makers are increasingly interested in the effect of time-varying treatments (e.g. sustained treatment strategies). In settings such as this, the preferred analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-11 Daniel Tompsett , Stijn Vansteelandt , Richard Grieve , Irene Petersen , Manuel Gomes

Unlike other techniques of causality inference, the use of valid instrumental variables can deal with unobserved sources of both variable errors, variable omissions, and sampling bias, and still arrive at consistent estimates of average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Øyvind Hoveid

This paper considers the problem of inferring the causal effect of a variable $Z$ on a dependently censored survival time $T$. We allow for unobserved confounding variables, such that the error term of the regression model for $T$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-02 Gilles Crommen , Jad Beyhum , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Numerous variable selection methods rely on a two-stage procedure, where a sparsity-inducing penalty is used in the first stage to predict the support, which is then conveyed to the second stage for estimation or inference purposes. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-28 Jean-Michel Bécu , Yves Grandvalet , Christophe Ambroise , Cyril Dalmasso

Instrumental variables are widely used to deal with unmeasured confounding in observational studies and imperfect randomized controlled trials. In these studies, researchers often target the so-called local average treatment effect as it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Linbo Wang , Yuexia Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins

In a causal graphical model, an instrument for a variable X and its effect Y is a random variable that is a cause of X and independent of all the causes of Y except X. (Pearl (1995), Spirtes et al (2000)). Instrumental variables can be used…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-14 Tianjiao Chu , Richard Scheines , Peter L. Spirtes

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Anna Baiardi , Paul S. Clarke , Andrea A. Naghi , Annalivia Polselli

Background: Spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation remains a major clinical challenge, with limited treatment options for functional recovery. Temporal interference (TI) electrical stimulation has emerged as a promising non-invasive…

Medical Physics · Physics 2025-03-07 Xu Xie , Yuchen Xu , Huilin Mou , Xi Li , Li Zhang , Zehao Sheng , Weidong Chen , Shaomin Zhang , Ruidong Cheng , Minmin Wang

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

Unobserved spatial confounding variables are prevalent in environmental and ecological applications where the system under study is complex and the data are often observational. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a common way to address…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Andrew Giffin , Brian J. Reich , Shu Yang , Ana G. Rappold

Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is a common cause of death and disability. However, existing tools for TBI diagnosis are either subjective or require extensive clinical setup and expertise. The increasing affordability and reduction in size of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-01 Navjodh Singh Dhillon , Agustinus Sutandi , Manoj Vishwanath , Miranda M. Lim , Hung Cao , Dong Si

Measurement error is a common challenge for causal inference studies using electronic health record (EHR) data, where clinical outcomes and treatments are frequently mismeasured. Researchers often address measurement error by conducting…

Given two sets of elements (such as cell types and drug compounds), researchers typically only have access to a limited subset of their interactions. The task of causal imputation involves using this subset to predict unobserved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Marco Jiralerspong , Thomas Jiralerspong , Vedant Shah , Dhanya Sridhar , Gauthier Gidel

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are considered a promising recipe to deliver better policy interventions. One key ingredient in optimal ITR estimation problems is to estimate the average treatment effect conditional on a subject's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-16 Hongming Pu , Bo Zhang

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

Learning causal relationships between pairs of complex traits from observational studies is of great interest across various scientific domains. However, most existing methods assume the absence of unmeasured confounding and restrict causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-17 Wei Li , Rui Duan , Sai Li

Missing values are prevalent in multivariate time series, compromising the integrity of analyses and degrading the performance of downstream tasks. Consequently, research has focused on multivariate time series imputation, aiming to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Jianping Zhou , Junhao Li , Guanjie Zheng , Xinbing Wang , Chenghu Zhou
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