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Trajectory prediction and planning are essential for autonomous vehicles to navigate safely and efficiently in dynamic environments. Traditional approaches often treat them separately, limiting the ability for interactive planning. While…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Anjian Li , Sangjae Bae , David Isele , Ryne Beeson , Faizan M. Tariq

Autonomous vehicles currently suffer from a time-inefficient driving style caused by uncertainty about human behavior in traffic interactions. Accurate and reliable prediction models enabling more efficient trajectory planning could make…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Julian Frederik Schumann , Jens Kober , Arkady Zgonnikov

Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-02 Victor Li , Baiting Chen , Yuzhen Mao , Qi Lei , Zhun Deng

For autonomous agents to act as trustworthy partners to human users, they must be able to reliably communicate their competency for the tasks they are asked to perform. Towards this objective, we develop probabilistic world models based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Aastha Acharya , Rebecca Russell , Nisar R. Ahmed

In complex multi-agent systems involving heterogeneous teams, uncertainty arises from numerous sources like environmental disturbances, model inaccuracies, and changing tasks. This causes planned trajectories to become infeasible, requiring…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-18 Neelanga Thelasingha , Agung Julius , James Humann , James Dotterweich

Adaptive synchronization protocols for heterogeneous multi-agent network are investigated. The interaction between each of the agents is carried out through a directed graph. We highlight the lack of communication between agents and the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-07 Miguel F. Arevalo-Castiblanco , Duvan A. Tellez-Castro , Jorge Sofrony , Eduardo Mojica-Nava

Off-Policy Prediction (OPP), i.e., predicting the outcomes of a target policy using only data collected under a nominal (behavioural) policy, is a paramount problem in data-driven analysis of safety-critical systems where the deployment of…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Tom Kuipers , Renukanandan Tumu , Shuo Yang , Milad Kazemi , Rahul Mangharam , Nicola Paoletti

Forecasting the behavior of other agents is an integral part of the modern robotic autonomy stack, especially in safety-critical scenarios with human-robot interaction, such as autonomous driving. In turn, there has been a significant…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Boris Ivanovic , Marco Pavone

Predicting the motion of a driver's vehicle is crucial for advanced driving systems, enabling detection of potential risks towards shared control between the driver and automation systems. In this paper, we propose a variational neural…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Xin Huang , Stephen McGill , Brian C. Williams , Luke Fletcher , Guy Rosman

We propose Conformal Lie-group Action Prediction Sets (CLAPS), a symmetry-aware conformal prediction-based algorithm that constructs, for a given action, a set guaranteed to contain the resulting system configuration at a user-defined…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Luís Marques , Maani Ghaffari , Dmitry Berenson

Trajectory planning under uncertainty is an active research topic. Previous works predict state and state estimation uncertainties along trajectories to check for collision safety. They assume either stochastic or bounded sensing…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Akshay Shetty , Grace Xingxin Gao

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

Learning-based approaches for controlling safety-critical systems are rapidly growing in popularity; thus, it is important to assure their performance and safety. Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) reachability analysis is a popular formal verification…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-11 Albert Lin , Somil Bansal

We investigate the probabilistic feasibility of randomized solutions to two distinct classes of uncertain multi-agent optimization programs. We first assume that only the constraints of the program are affected by uncertainty, while the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-29 George Pantazis , Filiberto Fele , Kostas Margellos

Autonomous driving in complex traffic requires reasoning under uncertainty. Common approaches rely on prediction-based planning or risk-aware control, but these are typically treated in isolation, limiting their ability to capture the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Devodita Chakravarty , John Dolan , Yiwei Lyu

In this paper we propose a novel distributed model predictive control (DMPC) based algorithm with a trajectory predictor for a scenario of landing of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on a moving unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The algorithm…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-04 Dženan Lapandić , Christos K. Verginis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas , Bo Wahlberg

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

For an autonomous vehicle to operate reliably within real-world traffic scenarios, it is imperative to assess the repercussions of its prospective actions by anticipating the uncertain intentions exhibited by other participants in the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Khaled A. Mustafa , Daniel Jarne Ornia , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström